The non-government analytical centre Ukrainian Studies for Strategic Studies (USSS) continues a series of events dedicated to analysing the current state and centrifugal trends in Russian regions.
The second of them is dedicated to the Republic of Dagestan, a region with the highest level of conflict and anti-Moscow violent protests, reinforced by ethnic diversity and the religious factor of Islam. The event was held as part of a project to monitor Russian regional conflict-generating and disintegration processes.
Keynote speaker Yuriy OLIYNYK, Candidate of Political Sciences, Director of the Non-Governmental Analytical Center “Ukrainian Studies of Strategic Research”, a serviceman of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, made a presentation, outlining the current situation in Dagestan and the prospects for its exit from the orbit of influence of the Moscow empire.
According to Oliynyk, historically, the lands of Dagestan are a foreign body within Russia, held together solely by imperial pressure. At the beginning of the 20th century, the peoples of Dagestan were already trying to create a separate state life. The problem is the ethnic diversity of the Republic, where dozens of nationalitіes live, the largest of which are the Avars, Kumyks, Lezgins, Dargins, Laks, and in the north, the Nogais. This allows Russia to pit the nationalities against each other, but the growing conflicts in economically underdeveloped Dagestan are forcing Moscow to allocate more and more resources to maintain control.
The religious factor is growing rapidly – supporters of the Salafi branch of Islam are being repressed, but the official spiritual leadership is losing authority. Due to the general problems of the Russian Federation, Moscow is intensifying repression against representatives of the local elite, taking away their business and social status. In return, the number of violent clashes with the occupiers is increasing.
Dagestan is becoming a hot spot, but the prospects for independence are remote due to the fragmentation of the population and elites. At the same time, external players – both Ukraine and Muslim states, primarily Turkey and Azerbaijan – will have a great influence on the reformatting of the Eastern Caucasus.
The fellow speakers of the report were:
Rizvan KUBAKAYEV – Nogai public and political figure, chairman of the Nogai Committee (online);
Oleksandr MUZYCHKO – Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor of Odessa National University named after I.I. Mechnikov;
Nikolay Volgov – researcher of the North-West Caucasus, political strategist, founder and head of the AP @« POLITCONSULTANT.org », member of the monitoring group of the NAC USSD.
Opponents generally supported the speaker’s position, drawing attention to the historical prerequisites for the secession, the general increase in tension in the Republic, the interests of external players and their potential influence on Dagestan.
Igor STAMBOL, the moderator of the event, concluded the discussion by summarizing the possible tools with which Ukraine can realise its strategic interest in the general weakening of the Russian empire.
