When I say that this war will last as long as the Russian Empire exists and that the “thousand-year wars” are not ending quickly, and at the same time, I assert that it is important for us to hold out until the end of this year, there is no contradiction in my statements.
Thus, Russia’s war against Ukraine is existential and has no subject of peaceful compromise by treaty.
There is no need to wait for Russia to propose a memorandum.
If he wants a memorandum, let him fulfil the guarantees of the Budapest Memorandum first.
And so, Russia wants to totally destroy Ukrainian statehood and erase the identity of the Ukrainian nation.
He wants to.
Is there a possibility of confrontation at this stage?
On the one hand, Russia has reorganized its economy on military lines, has accumulated the necessary resources until at least the end of 2025, has absolute support for such a cannibalistic policy from the population, effective allies and indecisive opponents, and above all, the mania of Putin, who understands that an endless war is the only chance to hold on to power.
Therefore, from the side of the swamps, we constantly hear bravura statements about a sanitary zone from 50 to 500 kilometres deep and a common single country as the goal.
Putin also optimistically demonstrates the constant influx of a key war spender – Vanyushok.
After the regular army was wiped out and the Vanyushek volunteers-smerniks were killed in frontal attacks, the mechanism for attracting meat became a commercial contract.
But even in the best of times, with the highest costs and various manipulations (with conscripts accused of crimes, simply deceived asocial elements), it was possible to scrape together a maximum of 30,000 suicide bombers who sold their lives for a contract per month.
It is clear that the quality of these warriors and their personal motivation declined each time.
Now, Putin claims 60,000 volunteers per month.
Besides the fact that this is mostly a FSB bluff, the swamps have indeed found a way to partially cover the shortage of consumables by massively distributing citizenship to illegal migrants and immediately demanding that they fulfil a sacred duty to their new homeland.
By the way, at the session of the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, the head of the Investigative Committee, Bastrykin, blurted out this. He said that they had already caught 89,000 migrants who had received Russian citizenship but had not registered or signed a contract, and 20,000 of them had already been sent to their deaths.
Vankov began to be replaced with jamshuts and rashids.
It is clear that in this case, the motivation of recruits is even lower than in the previous categories.
As is the quality.
But for Putin, for his insane tactics of doomed infantry trying to infiltrate our battle formations with their bodies, quality and motivation do not matter.
To exhaust, to overwhelm. This tactic seems to be having moderate success so far.
Although they are mainly related to problems in our mobilisation campaign.
It is impossible to win such a war with one team, let alone win.
Therefore, everyone who considers themselves a man should be at the front now.
Here, one cannot but welcome the act of Yuri Butusov.
Because first and foremost, we are all citizens and men, and then in civilian life, we are talented journalists, creative people, and so on.
For us, this war is even more existential than for the enemy.
Here it’s either-or. Either the master or he’s gone.
That’s why I wanted to meet Mikhail Tkach or the super-brave Shabunin in the trenches, together with the disabled prosecutors.
Therefore, Putin has enough ambition.
But on the other hand, I think that it is increasingly difficult for him with ammunition, and such overexertion can end badly.
In our case, it is worth persevering and persevering, and at the first opportunity to finish off the eternal enemy.
And Putin’s institutional stability is not all right.
The economy and money are the lifeblood of war.
The main income of the Russian economy is oil and gas revenues.
This year’s budget projected an oil price of almost $70 per barrel, but it has already fallen to $56 and is falling further.
To understand more objectively how this affects us, we need to know that an average month of war costs Russia at least $3 billion, and when the price of oil drops by just $1, oil and gas revenues lose approximately $2.6 billion.
If the EU still manages to approve a new sanctions package, the ceiling for Russian oil will drop from the current $60 to $45 per barrel. And this, I recall, is a loss of about $40 billion.
More than the annual military spending. There is still something to scrape together from the bins, but the possibilities for replenishing savings are sharply reduced.
It is also planned to fill Nord Stream 2 with reinforced concrete sanctions.
Expand the list of the sanctioned shadow fleet.
Almost completely disconnect those who have recovered from the SWIFT system.
And there is also the sledgehammer of the sanctions bill in the US Congress, with the possible introduction of huge secondary tariffs for those who want to haggle with Russia.
But that’s an if.
And right now, the clouds are gathering already.
Despite the presence of vast resources, without access to markets, credit, and technology, the industry may face stagnation that will be difficult to stop.
Although the proven oil reserves in Russia will last for 26 years, out of 31 billion tons of reserves, only 13 billion are currently conditionally profitable.
It’s even worse with gas. Already based on the results of 2024, the board of directors of Gazprom (once the richest company) recommended not paying dividends.
Gazpromneft (the only profitable direction) for the first time since the beginning of the large-scale war revealed losses for the first quarter of 2025 of 21.3 billion rubles.
This is even though last year, during the same period, the campaign had a profit of 36.9 billion.
Revenue fell by 4%, and costs rose by almost 7%, which instantly led to a fourfold contraction in operating profit.
The cost of production and logistics is growing, and the “import substitution” service is deteriorating.
Access to technology is becoming impossible.
This shows how slowly but steadily the noose of sanctions is strangling the Russian economy.
Already in the first quarter of this year, it showed a threefold decline.
And Russia was forced to reach into the pockets of the Russians.
Therefore, prices for everything are rising.
Payments for housing and utilities are increasing by at least 12%.
Since June, wealthy Moscow has also been raising public transport fares by almost 10%.
Prices for building materials are rising sharply.
In the summer, brick, concrete, and cement become more expensive by 10-20%, wood by 15-30%, and insulation materials and electricity by up to 15%.
The borscht set, which is a kind of indicator of food prices, has soared by more than 50%.
Potatoes, cabbage, and onions are becoming unaffordable and expensive delicacies for many Russians.
Russians’ debts and inability to repay loans are growing sharply.
Russian business is recording a sharp drop in demand, a drop in sales, and revenue.
This is the situation for at least 60% of entrepreneurs.
Demand for housing and cars is falling.
Car sales fell by a quarter.
In terms of decades, the statistics are even more striking.
If in 2012 almost three million new passenger cars were sold in Russia, in 2024, 1.7 million, then this year, the planned target reaches barely more than a million.
Sales of road construction equipment have plummeted by almost 40%.
All of this is due to massive cuts in federal programmes.
The Moloch of war sweeps away everything.
As a result of the budget sequestration, programmes for the development of the aviation industry (programmes under which it was promised to replace Western airliners with Russian ones on all Russian airlines) have been put under the knife.
Therefore, flying Boeing and Airbus, which do not receive proper technical support, is stupid and expensive, and the new “domesticated” (albeit almost entirely made of imported components) SSJ-100 and MS-21, despite assurances from Rostec, are unlikely to take off.
The basic state programme “Development of Industry and Increasing Its Competitiveness” (the vaunted import substitution), which planned to increase the production of civilian goods by 40%, lost almost 70 billion.
The programme to support the automotive industry, high-tech industries, shipbuilding, and scientific and design work has been sharply reduced.
The programme for the production of industrial robots, within the framework of which Putin demanded to bring Russia into the top 25 countries in terms of robot density, has shrunk by a third.
A clear indicator of economic problems is the collapse of freight transportation by Russian railways.
In 2024, the volume of Russian Railways transportation fell to a 15-year low. And since the beginning of this year, the decline has accelerated even more.
The largest exporters, Rusal, NLMK, and Gazpromneft, are reducing transportation plans under pressure from sanctions, high bank rates, and the global economy.
Economic problems could result in a wave of bankruptcies of budget-generating enterprises.
The largest shipping company, Sovcomflot, became unprofitable after the introduction of sanctions against the shadow fleet.
If last year the campaign had $216 million in profits in the first quarter, then this year during the same period, the losses reached $393 million.
Losses already significantly exceed operating revenue (which fell by almost half, 48%).
And although the campaign claims to be stable and has cash reserves and a stable financial position, the toll of sanctions against the shadow fleet is already ringing over its grave.
Before full-scale operation, Sovcomflot owned the world’s largest Aframax tanker fleet, as well as 10 icebreakers.
Sanctions have created chaos in payments and customer relations, with some customers significantly reducing payments for services.
All of Kuzbass’ coal campaigns are already operating below profitability.
Evidence of the level of problems is the anecdotal situation with Russian mail.
Even within the same region, letters can take months to arrive.
Russian Post explains this as enemy machinations, saying that it does not have domestic equipment (import substitution has not worked), and foreign software is regularly hacked by enemies.
But in reality, the problem is deeper.
The minimum necessary modernisation to a civilised level, with current funding, will last at least the next 228 years.
And this time, dear comrade Xi seems in no hurry to help.
During the so-called SVO, China reduced its investment in the marshes three times, despite Pu’s loud statements about an “unprecedented level of partnership” and “limitless opportunities” for cooperation.
After the start of large-scale operations, annual investments in Russian projects worth 1.2 billion per year were reduced by three.
Thus, the Kremlin’s hopes that Chinese money and technology would replace Western ones proved futile.
China needs a vassal, not an ally, and it is calmly waiting for the corpse of a dear friend to float down the river.
Since the beginning of the year, China has reduced its purchases of Russian oil, coal, and liquefied gas by tens of per cent. And shortly, it plans to increase its production and reduce its consumption of petroleum products, especially in transport, by massively introducing electric and hybrid equipment.
As a result, Russian coal companies that dreamed of replacing Western markets with Chinese ones found themselves facing a wall of tariffs and a 13% reduction in Chinese purchases this year alone.
Therefore, the loss-making rate of Russian coal companies is already over 50%, and about 10% of mining owners are in a pre-bankruptcy state.
And there are many such problems in Russia.
They are accumulating rapidly.
This does not mean that Moscow will abruptly abandon its plans to destroy us or that it will collapse.
The struggle will not become easier, but this text uses examples to show its fragile points, and therefore, the chance to survive.
This requires Faith and more Infantry.
That is, everyone who has not yet joined the ranks.
Therefore, the war with Russia is truly eternal as long as the latter exists. So we need to make it not eternal, but mortal. Fight and finish it off.
It seems to me that if I persist, I won’t have to wait for the 12th round.
P.S. I am often accused of not writing about our problems, of not comparing potentials, of reminding myself of Shevchenko’s “Poland fell and overwhelmed us” or of “the fat one will lose weight, the thin one will die” – I will answer simply: there are enough slanderers and all-out slanderers, that I personally have one choice: the mood with which I will fight.
I choose a good mood, where chances are given and taken against all odds.
When there is a desire to survive, to look for ways to win, and to enjoy sunrises and sunsets.
This is how it is right now, when the position is calm and there is an extremely rare opportunity to enjoy the sunset of our Donetsk sun…
I suggest you… think creatively, offensively, positively. And of course, act. They don’t die on their own:)
Therefore, I want to believe my brother “Moskaloriz”: “Whoever tramples on the enemy tramples on freedom – we will wipe out the Muscovites by autumn, and slaughter them by winter!”
