The farce called “Putin’s election” with a hyper-excited turnout and drawn record support, frees the hands of the last. The hyper-obsession with the war against Ukraine pushes to throw more and more resources into the crucible of war. Pyrrhic methods of warfare, meat assaults, as the only type of military art familiar to the Russian generals, require the involvement of more and more human resources to replenish planned losses, form reserves and new army offensive groups.
So, how Putin will attract human resources for the war with Ukraine and whether he will resort to general mobilization is a question that worries a significant part of Russian society, especially representatives of nations enslaved by Russia.
The Russian leadership did not stop the covert mobilization for a moment.
To more than double the occupation group in Ukraine, from approximately 160,000 in February 2022 to more than 400,000 by the end of 2023, Putin had already announced a partial mobilization in September 2022.
Since then, covert mobilization measures have not stopped. In addition, prisoners were actively involved in the war, including those accused of serious crimes. Those involved in the draft service were encouraged to sign a contract en masse. Mass mobilization took place in the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. But since no one in Russia saw the veterans alive and intact (except for the murderous convicts who used a short-term contract and after the war crimes in Ukraine returned to the usual way of life in Russia), they returned as a load of “200” or with significant mutilations and a guaranteed heavy disability. The war needs new resources.
In addition to replenishing sanitary losses (dead, wounded), which average from 500 to 1,000 people every day, for the continuation of ‘meat assaults’ and new offensive campaigns on another “strategically important village” (which must be completely destroyed before “liberation”) in Ukraine, Russian generals need to increase their offensive potential. Shoigu’s plans for 2024 include the creation of two combined armies and 30 units, including 14 divisions and 16 brigades. This is a total of more than 200,000 people, in addition to at least 150,000, who must cover planned sanitary losses.
So, will Putin succeed in a new wave of mobilization and will the Russian citizens not be laughed at on April 1? Most importantly, where will Putin look for reserves for the war in Ukraine?
Although covert mobilization did not stop for a single day, the existing forms of army replenishment, to put it mildly, ceased to give the desired result.
Forcefully mobilized residents of the occupied territories of Donbas were almost completely destroyed in the fighting. The number of people wishing to conclude a one-time contract without return has sharply decreased. Representatives of the Russian Orthodox Church were already involved in the agitation among murderers and rapists in the places of punishment before the conclusion of the contract.
The number of people willing to voluntarily conclude a “death contract” has decreased by about 20 times, compared to the beginning of 2023. At that time, an average of 500-600 men applied to the contract conclusion centres per day. At the beginning of 2024, a maximum of 20-30 would arrive every day.
The announcement of general mobilization poses serious domestic political challenges for Putin, and even the attempt to stir up anti-Ukrainian hysteria after the terrorist attack in Crocus had an ambiguous effect and led to an increase in inter-ethnic tension, xenophobia and a surge of Russian imperial chauvinism, which does not guarantee stability in the army, the basis of which is ” nationals”.
So, how will they rake in the war in Ukraine at this stage?
First. The occupation regime can resort to forced mobilization of men in the occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.
The next source of replenishment is strengthening mobilization measures in the territories of nations enslaved by Russia. With this, Putin kills two birds with one stone: he finds new cannon fodder and removes the problem of a possible national liberation movement of nations enslaved by Russia. Immediately after Putin’s election, summonses began to be delivered to residents of Buryatia, in particular, in the Barguzyn district.
The local army, to prevent panic, declared that these were not summonses for war, but gatherings of the mobilization reserve for 10-15 days. However, reservist meetings are a traditional type of covert mobilization. They can be forcibly sent to war.
From the first of April, a conscription campaign will start in Russia, under the cover of which covert mobilization measures will be carried out.
This year, the draft rules have changed significantly. The conscription age has been raised to 30 years. Now 27, 28, and 29-30-year-olds can be called up. Moreover, those who have recently received citizenship can be called up.
In the commissions, the reasons for refusals to dismiss due to health conditions have increased. Many diagnoses, which used to be grounds for exemption from military service, are massively ignored.
Significantly increased fines for draft evasion. According to Part 1 of Article 21.5 of the Code of Administrative Offenses three times – from 10 to 30 thousand rubles.
It is now more difficult to challenge illegal involvement in the draft.
In Moscow, a system of electronic summons is being tested, which local conscripts receive en masse.
Moreover, at every stage, the conscripts are persistently pushed to serve under a contract, which can now be concluded with any citizen who has reached the age of 18. Conscripts are recruited at the military commissariat, at the assembly point and in the unit. There is no possibility to request a postponement. Phones are taken from conscripts at the entrance, and legal representatives with mandates are not allowed in the hall with the commission.
Testing in Moscow of the military registration register and electronic summons creates an opportunity to search for conscripts as soon as possible, register in absentia and implement measures to ensure attendance, for example, a ban on travelling abroad and the right to drive vehicles.
The premises to which the conscript is ordered to appear are located next to the premises where the contract is concluded, and the conscript often does not understand where he got to and what he is agreeing to.
They are trying to encourage contract workers by significantly increasing the one-time payment upon signing the contract. Especially in depressed regions. Thus, in Kalmykia, the amount of a one-time payment at the conclusion of the contract increased from 195 thousand to half a million rubles. The participants of the so-called SVO are promised free plots of land, they are exempted from transport tax, a contribution to the overhaul of the house, or, for example, the charging of penalties for late or incomplete payment for housing and communal services and other “gingerbread”.
At the same time, such methods are not sufficient for such a massive involvement of personnel in the war.
Illegal and labour migrants are under a special focus of attention and in their places of residence there are general raids and inclinations to sign a contract. They are actively trying to recruit mercenaries abroad.
The problem is created by the fact that the transition of the economy to military status also requires an increase in the involvement of specialists in the defence sector, which has switched to overtime, a three-shift form of work.
The issue of removing the residents of megacities and individual regions such as Chechnya from the special status of “untouchability” is becoming increasingly acute. Their special status causes outrage in other parts of the empire. And their active involvement threatens to increase tension in the most oppositional regions.
But all this does not stop the bloody dictator in his crazy intentions. Covert or overt mobilization for war from which it is impossible to return unscathed will continue.
