Kazakhstan and China are discussing the development of a new cargo route along the Ili River and Lake Balkhash. The project would supplement existing overland trade links and form part of the broader development of the Trans-Caspian transport network. The idea was discussed in Beijing ahead of the Global Sustainable Transport Forum 2026. (eurasianet.org)
The proposed route could connect the Kazakh city of Konayev on Lake Balkhash with Yining in western China. It is intended primarily for oversized, heavy and project cargo. No launch date has been finalised, and infrastructure financing remains unresolved. (eurasianet.org)
At first glance, this is simply a transport project. Its significance is broader.
Much of Central Asia’s transport infrastructure was built when the region was integrated into a Moscow-centred system. Since independence, regional states have gradually sought routes that provide direct access to external markets without relying on transit through Russia. That process has accelerated in recent years. (osw.waw.pl)
The Ili project could therefore become part of a larger transformation: Central Asia is gradually developing its own transport geography.
Kazakhstan is already expanding its role in the Middle Corridor, linking China through Central Asia and the Caspian Sea to the South Caucasus and Europe. Kazakhstan says about 85% of land-based rail freight traffic between China and Europe passes through its territory. In the first half of 2026, cargo traffic between Kazakhstan and China rose 9% to 18.7 million tonnes. (gov.kz; gov.kz)
There is an important detail here: the proposed Ili route would run between Kazakhstan and China without entering Russian territory. That does not mean Kazakhstan is severing its economic ties with Russia; those ties remain substantial. But the greater the number of alternative routes, the less dependent a country becomes on a single transport centre.
For ABN, this carries a wider significance.
Imperial systems rely not only on armies and political control. They also rely on roads, railways, ports and trade routes that bind the periphery to the centre.
When states begin connecting directly with one another, that geography changes.
The Ili may become more than a new trade route. It could become another example of regions once oriented toward a single centre creating their own network of connections — without having to pass through Moscow.
