At the end of July, a convoy of Russian fighters from the private military campaign “Wagner”, which was carrying out punitive operations on the side of the Malian junta against the Tuareg rebels who were trying to create their own independent state of Azawad, was ambushed and almost destroyed. Footage of lightly armed insurgents defeating super-equipped Russian mercenaries, who considered the punitive operation another easy ride, went viral around the world.
The juntas of some African countries use Russians as unprincipled brutal mercenaries who can brutally suppress any resistance and protect the power of the junta. Act without regard to international humanitarian law.
The incident near the city of Kidal dealt another painful blow to the reputation of Russian forces in Africa. It could be the beginning of the end of scaling up the Russian presence on the black continent.
However, about everything in turn. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia lost the opportunity to play on the entire plane of the international chessboard. Isolated economic contacts, traditional arms trade, and the presence of military advisers remained.
However, the 2014 war in Ukraine significantly changed Russia’s geopolitical positions. The impunity annexation of Crimea and parts of Donbas, as well as the two Minsk ceasefires, which released Russian military potential, allowed Russia to try to transform itself from a regional bully into a global strategic player.
Which Russia used very effectively. Having first transferred troops to Syria and saved dictator Assad, it later infiltrated the Central African Republic. It intervened in the civil war in Libya.
Having formed a network of military bases, and providing logistics by controlling important airports and seaports, Russia has significantly intervened in the destabilization of the situation in Africa, undermining the positions of Western countries, scattering and replicating conflicts. The next was an attempt to go through the rear of the USA in South America, thus claiming the status of a geopolitical player who was regaining the positions lost after the collapse of the USSR.
The tactics of penetrating the black continent were different. If, for example, a full-fledged military contingent was deployed in Syria, and mercenaries from the “Wagner” PMC were only an auxiliary force for the dirtiest tasks, then in other countries the emphasis was on mercenaries supported by official military advisers. For example, in the Libyan adventure, Russia acted exclusively with mercenaries, although from time to time there is information about the liquidation of personnel of the Russian military.
In 2018, mercenaries from PMC “Wagner” found themselves in the Central African Republic to protect President Tuadera, who numerous rebel and opposition groups threatened. Armed with heavy equipment, the Russians, not shying away from the methods of punitive actions, helped the current head of the CAR to maintain control over most of the country’s territory. Mercenaries also became instructors in the government army and protected the first persons of the state. In return, the Russians received access to the mining of precious metals and minerals and contracts for the supply of weapons. By the way, more than 40% of Russian arms exports went to the African continent.
After successfully penetrating the CAR, mercenaries from Wagner’s group appeared in Libya and opposed the government of Faiz Sarraj, recognized by most of the world’s countries, on the side of the separatist Marshal Khalifa Haftar. In 2019, the Russians took part in an unsuccessful separatist assault on the country’s capital, Tripoli.
Even despite the decision to withdraw all foreign mercenaries from Libya, the Russians remained there to control several military airfields in the east of the country, which are important logistical links for penetrating Africa.
Further, obviously not without the participation of Russia, military coups took place in some of the African countries of the Sahel region, and local juntas invited Russian mercenaries. After the CAR, Russian mercenaries found themselves in Sudan, although they were unable to help retain the power of Omar al-Bashir, who was deposed in 2019 as a result of a military coup. The short-term Russian presence in Mozambique, where Russian mercenaries were supposed to help the authorities deal with local Islamist groups, also proved unsuccessful.
After all, since August 2021, Russian mercenaries appeared in Mali, after a military coup took place there and the French military contingent that helped fight Islamist groups was expelled from the country.
Several thousand Russian mercenaries, supported by heavy equipment and aviation, became a projection of the spread of Russian military presence on the African continent.
In general, Russia’s strategy was reduced to the displacement of the European, primarily French, presence and influence of the USA from Africa. Control over the Sahel logistics routes from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea.
Along with its military presence, Russia has been increasing its political influence by holding two African Forums, trying to play on the anti-colonial and anti-Western sentiments of African countries. Given that African countries make up a quarter of the votes in the UN, Russia is building a powerful diplomatic club in the so-called Global South, stoking anti-Western sentiment and ensuring support or at least neutrality for its own actions. Considering the position of the majority of African countries in the UN votes regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war, this strategy is still working.
In general, Russia’s strategic goals in Africa are mostly destructive. Break logistics chains. Deteriorate the security situation, which leads to an increase in migration. Migration from Africa is one of the main tools of Russia’s hybrid war against the West.
Russia is also trying to break key raw material chains for Western campaigns. For example, the supply of uranium.
From an economic point of view, Russia has nothing significant to offer African countries. Its turnover is many times inferior to Chinese, European or American.
In general, penetration into Africa became a demonstration of Russia’s claims to global status and the right to treat it as an equal.
Such an opportunity (as we have already noted) arose in Russia after the second Minsk armistice and the opportunity to transfer trained troops to a new theatre of operations. Just as the opportunity to drive out all the troops through the war in Syria pushed Russia to the adventure of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
At the same time, just as the invasion of Ukraine opened the door to military adventures in the world for Russia, a full-scale attack can put an end to these ambitions.
Military operations on other continents are extremely expensive and, as it turned out, due to the catastrophic consequences of the invasion of Ukraine, Russia simply lacks the resources to play on many chessboards at the same time. Only for the next three years, government loans to “friendly countries” will reach more than 17 billion dollars. At the same time, this year such expenses will grow by 30% compared to last year. The deficit Russian budget is already suffering from such an attraction of unprecedented generosity. Already at the end of 2022, the debt of foreign countries to Russia amounted to 28.9 billion dollars and grew by more than 9% in the last year alone.
Such ambitions are expensive and are already showing signs. A significant part of the weapons and military equipment was forcibly withdrawn to Ukraine, and the possibility of human and material replenishment is practically non-existent. The Prigozhyn rebellion of 2023 undermined the position of the “Wagner” PMC both within the country and also on the African continent. If earlier aviation and heavy equipment were sent in unlimited quantities to support the actions of the Wagnerites, now the Russian authorities are watching the extermination of the Wagnerites with silent satisfaction. The African Corps – another private campaign, created at the initiative of the Russian Ministry of Defence (which was supposed to replace the Wagners in Africa) was transferred to Ukraine and is suffering heavy losses.
Ukrainian special services have also begun to catch up with the Russians in Africa. In November 2023, the special forces of the GUR arranged a safari for representatives of the “Wagner” PMC in Sudan. The heavy defeat of the Wagners in Mali also seems to be the result of the cooperation of local rebels with Ukrainian intelligence. Therefore, Russian fortune hunters on the black continent seem to have turned into prey. And the military adventure in Ukraine, which initially opened the door to geopolitical claims in the world, seems to put an end to them.
