In public, Putin has tried for years to appear in complete control of the situation — both within the state and in his surroundings. But recent leaks from European intelligence agencies paint a completely different picture: fear, isolation, and distrust even of those closest to him.
According to investigators, confirmed by CNN and Financial Times journalists, the Russian president seriously fears an assassination attempt. This is not only about a hypothetical threat from outside, but primarily about risks within the Russian elite itself.
According to information from the special services, which became known to journalists, security measures by the Federal Security Service have been sharply tightened. Putin appears in public less and less often, avoids trips (even to the traditional Valdai), and spends a significant part of his time in protected bunkers. This is not the behaviour of a self-confident leader – it is a symptom of fear.
And the main question: who really poses a threat to him?
Not the opposition. It has either been destroyed in Russia or driven abroad.
Not the West. Assassination attempts on heads of state are not a tool of democratic countries.
The biggest danger to Putin is those close to him.
The Russian system of power is built on a balance of fear and profit. But when profit disappears – and sanctions, war, and economic pressure are rapidly eating it away – fear ceases to be sufficient cement for the regime. The elites begin to look for a way out.
And here it is worth mentioning Russian history itself. It is harsh and ruthless towards its rulers and influential figures. In different eras, they were eliminated not only politically but also physically: strangled with scarves in palaces, as happened to Paul I; destroyed in conspiracies and coups; eliminated in secret operations of the special services; drowned under the ice in the Neva, like the tsar’s favourite Rasputin. It is a Russian tradition to eliminate the bearer of sole power when he turns into a significant social irritant.
Modern Russia has not deviated from this logic. Various Kremlin towers are fighting behind the scenes. Murders of political opponents, mysterious suicides, “accidents” – all this has become part of the system.
Putin knows Russian court history better than anyone. He grew up in this culture of power and supported it. Therefore, his fear is not paranoia. It is a cold understanding: if the system works like this, sooner or later it will work against you.
Today, a dangerous trend for the Kremlin is forming in Russia: some elites are no longer afraid of Putin, but of the future with him.
The war against Ukraine, international isolation, economic degradation — all this turns a once profitable system into a toxic asset. And in such a situation, a logic emerges that any authoritarian history knows well: to preserve the system, sometimes its top is removed.
Does this mean that an assassination attempt is being prepared? No. There is no direct evidence of this.
But the fact that Putin believes in it and is unprecedentedly strengthening his own security speaks for itself.
He knows well how those who lose to their own system end up. In Russia, rulers are not followed by chance, they are always followed by their own people. Putin understands that they are already being followed.
