Despite the strained relations between Western countries and Russia, the latter’s intelligence synchronously warned Moscow about the possibility of terrorist acts soon.
The US Embassy in Russia was the first to make such a statement, publishing it late in the evening on 7 March. Subsequently, similar information was posted by the embassies of Great Britain, Latvia and several other EU countries.
According to the intelligence communities of these countries, “extremists plan to attack large gatherings in Moscow soon, including concerts,” and recommends that citizens of their countries avoid large gatherings of people, follow information in the media and be attentive to their surroundings.
Western governments believe that when it comes to preventing terrorism, the long-standing policy of the “duty to warn” has been implemented by all governments and administrations to protect governments from potentially deadly threats.
According to the American publication “Wall Street Journal”, this is how the American administration warned Iran that the Islamic State is preparing to carry out a terrorist attack on 3 January 2024. Then the Americans indicated the place of a potential attack in the city of Kerman. Iran was unable to prevent a suicide attack in the city of Kerman during the commemoration of Qassem Soleimanithe, the Quds Force late commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The blast in Kerman, which killed 84 Iranians and wounded hundreds, was the deadliest terrorist attack in Iran’s history since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
The growing tension and confrontation in the world, Russia’s formation of an axis of evil in the composition of Iran and North Korea and the encouragement of its proxies to carry out terrorist methods prompts other terrorist groups to take advantage of the situation and add fuel to the fire.
However, Russia itself successfully manages to inspire terrorist attacks on its territory to achieve the necessary political goals. This was already the case during Putin’s first presidential campaign, when, taking advantage of the situation of blowing up houses in Russia, he then started the second Chechen war of aggression.
A week before the presidential elections, Russian sociologists stopped publishing polls about citizens’ willingness to participate in the elections and support Putin. It seems that the Russians are tired of Putin’s election without alternatives, so the number of people willing to go to the polls and vote for Putin has frozen at unacceptable numbers for the Kremlin. The successes on the front of the war of aggression faded away, and the losses turned out to be colossal. Therefore, the temptation to shake society with the inspiration of a bloody shock terrorist attack somewhere in Moscow in order to consolidate around common threats is high and, it seems, acceptable.
However, one should not dismiss the objective threats of an increase in the terrorist threat in Russia. The Kremlin, getting involved in the fight with the Islamic State in Syria, has acquired a dangerous enemy. What’s more, in predominantly Sunni Russia, ardent friendship with the leader of the Shiite world, Iran, does not arouse admiration. The need for mass recruitment of labour migrants from Asian countries, mostly Sunni Tajikistan, became a favourable channel for the infiltration of Idil fighters into the territory of Russia. Adding fuel to the fire is the frank growth of xenophobia against non-Russians on the territory of Russia during the war and on the eve of the presidential elections. The rapid increase in the number of dead and missing in the hopeless war in Ukraine does not add stability to the situation either. And most importantly, Russia has closed any gateways to the expression of a civil position: freedom of assembly and expression of opinion. If there are no peaceful ways to express one’s position, only non-peaceful ones remain.
Russia traditionally paints its political opponents as extremists and terrorists to be able to deal with them through show executions.
Russia itself, with its policy of state terrorism, cultivates, exports and leaves no choice to its opponents.
Therefore, terror, as a method of management, and terrorism, as a means, have become a convenient tool in the hands of the Kremlin. At the same time, terrorism is a double-edged sword, and who knows whether such a management method will return to the Kremlin as a “black swan” boomerang.
Western governments, having made their statements, deprived Moscow of the opportunity to blame the hostile West and neo-Nazis in Kyiv for the mess that Moscow itself brewed…
