At the end of May, US President Joe Biden allowed the limited use of part of the American weapons provided to Ukraine for strikes on the territory of Russia.
For a long time balancing within its doctrine of controlled escalation, which caused significant damage to Ukraine and gave Russia a significant head start in waging war against Ukraine, the US finally changed its policy. Although this step will have a limited effect from a military point of view, in terms of geopolitics it is a revolutionary step. This is the first time in American history that a US president has authorized a limited military response against artillery and missile bases and command posts within the national borders of a nuclear-armed adversary.
Until now, the Russian-Ukrainian war looked like a football match, in which one side started with a score of 3:0, its players were more on the field, they used an unlimited number of balls, were equipped like hockey players, and the other side was not even allowed to hit on opponent’s goal.
For more than two years, Russia, possessing a missile monopoly, has been striking peaceful targets in any part of Ukraine, while Ukraine was categorically prohibited from striking enemy targets outside its borders with weapons provided by its partners. Each time, Moscow voiced the option of using nuclear weapons in response to the deepening of the escalation, not only shocking the Western public with the eccentric statements of its rabid spokesmen but also demonstrating real steps, for example by moving tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus and conducting corresponding simulation exercises.
The similar vandalism of the second largest city in Ukraine – Kharkiv, the expansion of the limits of hostilities, and the constant abuse of swinging the nuclear club in anticipation of the cowardly reaction of the West, had the opposite effect.
Now Ukraine will have, albeit spatially limited, the opportunity to strike with effective weapons in a close operational zone, hitting the enemy’s concentration, its firepower, making the logistics, the ability to accumulate and strike Ukraine as difficult as possible, knowing that there will be no response. Simultaneously with the USA, similar statements were made by the border governments of Germany, Great Britain and France are traditionally the most decisive.
In addition to crossing the extreme red line, the logic of which predicted that strikes on Russian territory would lead to the involvement of the West in a direct military confrontation, and therefore threaten to turn into a third world war, Western leaders crossed the internal psychological line, balancing within the policy of appeasement of the aggressor. The aggressor, who cannot be convinced of the need to end the war, must be forced to bear the maximum losses from the war.
Ukraine received permission to carry out limited strikes on the territory of Russia using American weapons. Currently, there is permission to use artillery and short-range missiles at command posts, warehouses and other objects that Russia is using to launch an offensive on Kharkiv. Weapons that the US has allowed the Ukrainians to use include guided missile salvo systems (GMRLS) and highly mobile artillery rocket systems (НIMARS). Even with a limited firing range of up to 70 km, this weapon will be able to significantly disrupt logistical operations and troop movement.
The change in US policy came after British Foreign Secretary David Cameron and French President Emmanuel Macron said they were lifting a ban on the use of US-made weapons for legitimate purposes in Russia. Now Storm Shadows and Scalps will become frequent guests at the airfields of the Kursk and Belgorod regions. Currently, the USA prohibits the use of longer-range ATACAMS systems on Russian territory, however, they cover any point in the occupied territories and can systematically fire occupation objects in Crimea.
However, the lifting of the ban on Western weapons does not solve one of the key problems – Russian guided bombs, which methodically destroy all life in the front-line zone. To destroy Russian front-line bombers in the air, Ukraine needs more PATRIOT air defence systems (the only currently available weapon capable of stopping bomb terror) and the appearance of F-16 aircraft on the battlefield.
Currently, even the armament of Ukrainian SU-24 aircraft with Western cruise missiles does not allow them to effectively counter Russian bombers. To carry out the task, Ukrainian aircraft must approach the border, which makes them vulnerable to Russian air defence equipment, and pulling the PATRIOTS closer to the line risks their detection and attempted destruction by, for example, Iskander missile systems. Therefore, the appearance of the F-16 can significantly ease the situation on the front line. The announcement by the Dutch government that they will not ban the use of their planes gives hope for a gradual levelling of the situation in the air.
In general, the war is moving into a new phase, the actual creation of a demilitarized zone on the Russian border territory. At least the accumulation of troops on the borders with Ukraine or an attempt to carry out artillery terror will receive an immediate and harsh response.
Moreover, Russia, which, having lost the first blitzkrieg phase of the war, readjusted to a war of attrition, thus trying to suffocate Ukraine en masse, unexpectedly involved itself in a dangerous arms race with the West, which the USSR had already lost once. The West struggled for a long time trying to find a solution to the situation in Ukraine, now it is slowly turning on all its levers and gaining momentum.
Currently, Russia still has the upper hand, using a manpower advantage and not experiencing a shortage of ammunition, constantly maintaining a comfortable advantage of a ratio of 10 to 1 or at least 5 to 1 artillery fire in its favour, but the gradual saturation of the front line with modern Western artillery systems, the emergence in the air, the F-16 is gradually levelling the situation on the battlefield.
However, Russia’s unilateral missile monopoly and the terrorist use of long-range missiles remain unresolved. This is already homework for Ukraine. Possessing the technologies for making rockets capable of flying into space, Ukraine must finally supplement its own means with rockets capable of reaching Russian decision-making centres.
Russia should be taught that there will no longer be a handicap on the battlefield, there will be an asymmetric, brutal war of destruction. And for every escalation on her part, there will be a symmetrical escalation.
