Tensions between Baku and Moscow have been going on for several months. On 27 June, mass arrests of Azerbaijanis took place in Yekaterinburg, and as a result of lawlessness by security forces, two brothers, Ziyaddin and Guseyn Safarov, were killed. After this, an unprecedented aggravation of relations between Russia and Azerbaijan took place.
Why did the Kremlin decide to demonstratively humiliate the Azerbaijani diaspora right now? What is behind these steps? Charter97.org spoke about this with former political prisoner and head of the conflict and migration research department at the Institute of Peace and Democracy, Arif Yunusov :
— In Russia, attacks, pogroms, and atrocities by security forces are largely common practice. There have been murders and torture. Therefore, what is surprising is not what happened, say, in Yekaterinburg. What is surprising is that the Azerbaijani government reacted to this.
Previously, for example, the question immediately arose: why did Ilham Aliyev not strike back? The life of an Azerbaijani in Russia is the same as that of all migrants. And all because the main thing here is geopolitics. Since March, the situation has begun to change. Negotiations have started in the region, which are still ongoing, between Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey. Turkey plays a key role. Recently, Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev met in Istanbul, where they discussed rapprochement between the countries.
Both sides, Azerbaijan and Armenia, have already announced that the work on the text of the peace treaty is complete. The document is ready, it only needs to be signed. Azerbaijan was dragging its feet because Russia, which is categorically against concluding peace, stood behind it. What does such a treaty mean? It means that Armenia will automatically establish good relations with Turkey. It will turn out that Armenia has excellent relations with Turkey, Iran, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.
Then why do we need a Russian military base? Currently, there is only one in the South Caucasus – Armenia. Its presence allows Russia to exert constant pressure and prepare coups. Pashinyan has long raised the issue of withdrawing Russian border guards from Armenia’s borders with Iran and Turkey with Vladimir Putin. And he achieved this – the border guards were also removed from Yerevan airport.
Then the question of the military base arose. And the base means both relations with Turkey and with Azerbaijan. The peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia radically changes the geopolitical situation – and, of course, this is not in Russia’s interests. Therefore, the go-ahead was given.
Russia will not go to open war with Azerbaijan now – it will be a second front, and it is bogged down in Ukraine. In addition, Baku relies on the support of Turkey. A couple of years ago, perhaps, Moscow could have acted. Now – no. Russia has become so weakened that even Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are sending it notes of protest because of the persecution of their citizens.
What is new in this situation is that Azerbaijan has gone for an open conflict. If you look closely, it is a mirror image of demonstrativeness. The problem is not what happened in Yekaterinburg – something similar has already happened in the history of Azerbaijan and Russia. The scenario was repeated: they gave the order, raised old cases, and found the first people they came across. The riot police burst in, tortured two for several hours and beat them to death. They did not find any ribs – their bodies were turned into a mess. Three are now in intensive care in Russia, between life and death. It was a demonstrative action – intimidation. Message to Aliyev: “Look, we are starting. Tomorrow, our propagandists will spin the theme of the “Azerbaijani mafia”, the anger of the Russian people.”
Last year, Aliyev did not do this. In an interview with Dmitry Kiselev, he said: “Putin and I are in the same boat.” He kept quiet then. But now Aliyev wants to get out of this boat. Now there is the United States. Behind-the-scenes negotiations are underway. Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, stopped in Baku on the way after meeting with Putin. Officially, “to refuel.” In reality, he talked with Aliyev for 4 hours. About what? Clearly, not about the weather. We are talking about Turkey, Israel, Iran, Russia and its role in the Caucasus. Then dynamic actions began. Turkey joined in. The process of ousting Russia from the South Caucasus is underway.
Russia has only one weapon left – the diaspora. The only trump card is to organize the deportation of several tens of thousands of people, to destabilise the situation inside Azerbaijan. After that, Aliyev may refuse to sign a peace treaty. That is the real reason.
— Aliyev has taken on Russian propagandists in Azerbaijan. How deep has Moscow’s influence penetrated?
— Firstly, Moscow’s influence begins with Aliyev himself and his family. The authorities in Baku are pro-Russian. What we see now is a show, a demonstrative action.
The same thing — the arrest of the so-called “criminal elements”: 10 or already 13 people. They detained IT specialists from Russia who fled the war. We have fewer of them than in Armenia or Georgia, but they exist. So they were arrested and beaten demonstratively. This is a mirror response: “You beat ours — we beat yours.” Only without torture and murder. This is a demonstrative response. Aliyev is showing: “I am not afraid of you.”
— How might the conflict between Aliyev and Putin develop?
— The key point: Aliyev and Putin are both dictators, in the same boat. But it would be more advantageous for Aliyev to sit in the boat with Trump. For now, he does not want an open conflict. Azerbaijan tried to distance itself from Moscow carefully. But the Kremlin found out about everything ahead of time, and the noise began. Now hysteria will be whipped up for several days, both in Russia and in Azerbaijan.
In Azerbaijan, not a single MP or media outlet acts without orders from above. And suddenly state television, which is afraid to even put a comma without permission, compares Putin to Stalin. Everything was written in advance. One of the MPs said that Azerbaijan needs to diversify its foreign policy. They didn’t say that in Baku before. This was the rhetoric of the Armenians: they say they need good relations not only with Russia, but also with the West. This irritated the Kremlin. In Georgia, they also said: “We don’t want to quarrel with Russia, but we need to develop ties with the West.” This had never happened in Azerbaijan before — Russia was the main ally.
But now Azerbaijan understands: the world is changing. There is Trump. Tomorrow Russia may cease to exist. Therefore, the best strategy is diversification, distancing. So that at the “hour X” there are normal relations with the West. Now it is necessary to solve the current problem. Aliyev is waiting for a call from Putin – from him specifically. Azerbaijan senses Russia’s weakness. When the plane was shot down, Aliyev demanded that Putin call and apologize. Moscow did not want to do this for a long time, negotiations were underway. The same thing now: Aliyev needs Putin to apologize, promise an investigation and punishment of the guilty. Then the tension will subside. Most likely, this will happen in a couple of days. Naturally, all Russians in Azerbaijan will be released. It will turn out that the beaten “organized crime group members” are in fact ordinary IT specialists.
But much depends on how things go between Putin and Trump. This is big geopolitics. Open confrontation is not beneficial for either Baku or Moscow. Russia uses Azerbaijan to bypass sanctions. Oil, gas – and Azerbaijan makes money on this.
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