Now there is more and more talk about the future of Russia. No wonder – everyone understands that the current Russian regime will sooner or later collapse. Perhaps that collapse will come later than we expect, but the fact is that it is guaranteed.
So, instead of fearing this collapse and pretending that nothing will happen, let the whole democratic world prepare a proper plan to control the consequences of that guaranteed collapse.
The Forum of Free Post-Russian Nations, which has been active since May last year, has a number of suggestions on how to prepare concretely for this guaranteed collapse of the Russian regime.
For my part, I will now explain why that collapse is guaranteed.
There are FOUR options for Russia’s future development. But all of them have the same ending: the collapse of the Russian regime and the Russian Federation, and the guaranteed establishment of new states. One option is the best, and three other options are worse.
OPTION 1. THE BEST OPTION. The best option, the shortest way with the least loss – is maximum support from the democratic world for the regions and the new states. In this case, Russia’s military defeat will be followed by the guaranteed collapse of the current Kremlin regime, then followed by the guaranteed strengthening of centrifugal forces. The regions (or some regions) will become independent states. And – the best case scenario – the new states will have sufficient support from the democratic world. After this stability and democracy will prevail in this region of the world.
OPTION 2. NOT SUFFICIENT SUPPORT. The new states will not get sufficient support from the democratic world, most of them will become authoritarian, and – as a result – reanimation of the empire is guaranteed. Then – again – concentration of forces will take place, and – again – new wars. Then the whole democratic world will mobilize at last, because it will once again face an existential threat. Again there will be the military defeat of Russia, then again – the collapse of the Kremlin regime, and again – the guaranteed strengthening of centrifugal forces. Regions (or some regions) AGAIN will become independent states. Finally, the democratic world will return back to the real power of democracy and decide to give sufficient – finally sufficient – support to the new states.
OPTION 3. SURVIVAL OF THE CURRENT KREMLIN REGIME. After a partial defeat, or even after the freezing of the current situation – survival of the current Kremlin regime, then – again – concentration of forces, and – again – new wars. And then finally – the military defeat of Russia, then – the collapse of the Kremlin regime, and then – the strengthening of centrifugal forces, and then – regions (or some regions) will become independent states, new states will receive sufficient support from the democratic world, stability and democracy will prevail in this world region.
OPTION 4. OPTION OF UNITED „DEMOCRATIC“ RUSSIA. Option of a united democratic, or rather semi or even pseudo-democratic Russia. Perhaps this is even the most dangerous option because in this case, the wish to support the “democratic” regime of a new united Russia will be guaranteed to lead back to the renovation of the empire and again – to the new wars. Why? It is simple. After the military defeat of Russia, there will be the collapse of the current Kremlin regime, then will appear a united (semi) democratic Russia, and after that the guaranteed fall back to the empire, and back to the new wars. You will say – that this renovation of the empire does not have to happen. But – do you remember – what was the end of Yeltsin’s Russia? Does the world want to repeat the same mistakes again and again?
So, in order to avoid the same circle, and guarantee new wars and a huge number of victims, the democratic world MUST prepare right now for the guaranteed collapse of the current Russian regime and the establishment of new states. The democratic world MUST right now support independent democratic organizations and movements in the regions of present-day Russia, and support transitional governments – when these will appear.
AFTER THE GUARANTEED CRASH OF THE CURRENT RUSSIAN REGIME:
1. Direct relations with the regions, especially with those that seek independence and democracy
Plan for the democratization of regions (and future states)
SUPPORT – ONLY IN EXCHANGE FOR DEMOCRATIZATION
Reparations plan, its execution and control
Constant control over the implementation of the Post-Russian reconstruction plan
De-imperialization plan (educational programs and so on)
Ideas for each region (for further development)
Investment plans and programs for each region, and especially for each democratic state on the territory of the current Russia
FOR YOURS AND OUR FREEDOM!
Andrius ALMANIS
President of the Institute of Post-Russia Regions
Member of the Organizing Council of the Free Nations of Post-Russia Forum
Member of the Committee of the Independent Confederation of Siberia
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