For the West to give Ukraine a lot of money and weapons for victory without talking, and not just for a complex defense, it is necessary to provide the United States and Europe with a clear, realistic and adequate picture of what should happen in Russia after Ukraine’s victory. How everything should be organized there after the war.
You can, of course, say: “It doesn’t matter. We don’t care, let everything burn there, let everyone fight against everyone there!” This is also an understandable position.
However, while there are no proposals on this topic that suit the West, Europeans and Americans will act very ( even excessively) carefully so that Russia does not accidentally lose and collapse into principalities and caliphates armed with atomic weapons.
For many in the West, this scenario seems worse than Putin’s victory. Whether we like it or not, this is reality. They are very afraid of this. This concern of theirs needs to be removed.
Accordingly, we need some kind of analogue of the Yalta Conference, where the Allies decided in advance the fate of post-war Germany, although Hitler at that time still commanded the Reich.
I think we should proceed from the fact that Putin’s Russia can be defeated by military means. When the Ukrainian Armed Forces had enough weapons, the Russian troops fled very quickly, abandoning people and equipment. When the PVC Wagner rebelled, the Russian Army disappeared altogether and did not move. So, a military victory is quite real, provided that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have normal supplies and weapons.
Now, of course, the moment has passed. But he may appear again. The situation is not static, it is constantly changing. I did not share the general pessimism in the first days of the invasion when they simply laughed at me when I said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would survive. I don’t share it even now. If there are weapons, there will be a military victory. The Russian army is an extremely ineffective, backward mechanism, thoroughly saturated with corruption and irresponsibility. Defeating her is not something incredible. Accordingly, no Russian politicians, especially from the old class, are necessary to discuss the future of the Russian Federation.
Ivan Yakovyna
NV
