Alexey Belovol, Deputy Director of the company, commented on the results of the survey: “The potential for the collapse of the Russian Federation lies in the gap between the regions and the center.
More than 80% of the respondents categorically deny the possibility of the collapse of Russia and do not believe in the likelihood that regions may appear that can break away from the federal center. Nevertheless, more than 10% of respondents (among whom respondents aged 18 to 34 predominate) admit the collapse of Russia in the coming years. And with the weakening of subsidies from the center, where budget problems are becoming more and more noticeable, these sentiments may intensify.
Despite the 100% public loyalty to the Kremlin of the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, it is Chechnya, like Tatarstan, the Caucasian republics in general and Bashkortostan, that Russians see as the most unfavorable regions in the context of the collapse of the Russian Federation.
At the same time, 40% of respondents believe that local authorities do not quite enough or completely insufficiently protect their interests before the center. These are quite high figures, which indicate that the government rests on the strength and fortress of Moscow, but already the local “elections” in September may present surprises in certain regions and create prerequisites for distancing the regions from Moscow. As long as the TV is working properly for Putin, people on the ground see real problems and therefore want to believe that the tsar is good there, but here the boyars are bad. Therefore, the further the official, the higher the support.
If we translate the results of the survey into absolute numbers, then more than 25 million Russians believe that the war with Ukraine, called in Russia itself “Northern Military District”, should be ended without even reaching the result announced by the authorities. And even though now more than 70% are in favor of its continuation to the bitter end, almost 30% of those who are against it, this is a really powerful force if at least some of them are gathered in one place. The power to take down power. Therefore, there is a potential for protests, the only question is their organization.
The conflict of generations is also visible – the younger the age, the less support from the authorities. There is a clear trend towards a decrease in trust in the actions of the Russian authorities with a decrease in the age of the respondents. This is a confirmation of the fact that the more information a person is, the more mobile, the less he trusts the authorities. 33.8% of respondents aged 18 to 34, who oppose the war, are a powerful mobilization resource, from the spark of which a real revolutionary flame can ignite.
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