The policy of restrictions and blocking of Russian gas and oil exports to the European Union gives noticeable results. In addition to the decrease in foreign exchange earnings, Russia has a significant profit from energy resources, which it is trying to transfer to other markets. One of these goods is gas. Russia’s logical desire to export excess natural gas somewhere has encountered an unexpected obstacle. And this obstacle is Turkmenistan.
A small country with a population of six million has one of the largest reserves of gas, which is actively exported to China through a relatively recently constructed gas pipeline. It has three branches with a length of 1,600 km through the territory of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan and 4,500 km in the territory of China. Moreover, China and Turkmenistan reached an agreement on the construction of the 4th branch of this gas pipeline. Branch D of the Central Asia-China gas pipeline is already being designed.
Russia is interested in access to this transport resource. Moreover, Russia and Turkmenistan are connected by the gas pipeline “Central Asia – Center”, built in Soviet times.
Now, through the Power of Siberia pipeline, Russia pumps only 16 billion cubic meters per hour, which is only 7 percent of the volume of supplies to the European market. And there are conditions for increasing these volumes, conditionally redirecting “European” gas to China. The existing network of gas pipelines is connected, and there are no special technical problems to send additional gas to China. But there is one thing but… — the position of Turkmenistan, which controls the “bridge”.
First, Turkmenistan already has additional export reserves. Secondly, Turkmenistan reminded Russia of its “old rivalry”. And both of these are connected with Ukraine.
Back in the 1990s, Turkmenistan sold gas to Ukraine through a network of gas pipelines controlled by Russia’s Gazprom. The leaders of the two countries — Saparmurad Niyazov and Leonid Kuchma — then had good relations. But Russia, which already in the late 1990s began playing gas monopoly, left Turkmenistan out of the Ukrainian market. And, of course, the prospect of entering the European market. But she offered the Turkmen to buy all their excess gas at a humiliatingly low price.
The Turkmen were shocked! But, after coming to their senses, they were able to come to an agreement with China, and today considerable volumes of gas are being sent there. Last year — 33 billion cubic meters. And the Russian gas pipeline “Power of Siberia” is only 16 billion cubic meters. In addition, the Chinese pay the Turkmen a higher price than the Russians.
So, I remembered the “old offense”, the Turkmens hurt the Russians. In the end, the Russians fell into the same trap that they set for their gas competitors from Central Asia.
The market is a cruel thing. No one will simply give their fate to a competitor “just for the sake of it.” Especially to a competitor who once behaved cynically and unprincipledly.
Russia has now tried to abandon the idea of creating a Central Asian gas cartel between the Russian Federation, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. To divide the markets and dictate the price. And again the Turkmen were against it. What, in fact, brought the idea of the cartel “to the net”.
We will soon see if Russia will be able to “bend” Turkmenistan. But it looks like it won’t work. The levers of Russian influence on Ashgabat are less and less. And it seems that the Chinese are not going to help Russia in this process.
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