The reason for this is the thawing of Russian-American dialogue (Putin’s talks with Trump, contacts through the Foreign Ministry, and the meeting in Riyadh on 8 February). They boast that Washington has heard and accepted arguments about the need to eliminate the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis, including NATO expansion and the oppression of the rights of Ukraine’s Russian-speaking population.
The Administration of the President of the Russian Federation has formulated a list of demands to be conveyed to international partners regarding the peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian conflict:
1. The West must stop supplying weapons to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, sharing intelligence, and training Ukrainian military personnel;
2. A ceasefire is possible only after firm agreements on a final settlement. This must also include international recognition of Crimea, Sevastopol, the DPR, LPR, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions as belonging to Russia;
3. The status of the Russian language, culture, media, traditions, and canonical Orthodoxy must be restored in Ukraine;
4. A return to the terms of the Istanbul Agreement on all issues.
The Administration of the President of the Russian Federation emphasizes that Russia will agree to peace negotiations only if all the aforementioned demands are met. They clearly understand that fulfilling these demands will lead to the complete destabilization of the situation in Ukraine. At the same time, Moscow is actively sending signals to Washington about the “inability to negotiate” of the Ukrainian President, aiming to encourage the Trump administration to facilitate a change in Ukraine’s leadership.
To date, Russia is conducting a powerful information operation across multiple fronts:
• In contact with the US, Russia is pushing the narrative of the need for elections in Ukraine. At the same time, Moscow is preparing political projects for pro-Russian forces to participate in future elections, including meetings with Ukrainian politicians (including MPs) in Europe and other regions of the world;
• It is attempting to foster a personal negative attitude in Trump toward the Ukrainian President, positioning Zelensky as an obstacle to the American leader’s plan for a swift end to the war;
• It is carrying out a large-scale campaign to discredit the Ukrainian President before the American audience.
Key narratives include the “illegitimacy of the Ukrainian President,” “usurpation of power,” and the “inevitability of presidential elections.” Leading Russian media have been tasked with digging up dirt on the Ukrainian President or fabricating “plausible” stories. For complete success, the Kremlin needs not only the US but also
European leaders to believe its narrative. Moscow is facing difficulties with this, but the campaign is gaining momentum.
The Kremlin has identified one of its priorities for the coming weeks and months: to exclude the Ukrainian President from the political process surrounding the settlement. In reality, Putin needs two steps from Zelensky—lifting the previously imposed ban on negotiations with Russia and announcing elections.
