“Little Green Men” in Poland: Experts Suggest What Provocation the Kremlin Prepared

The Kremlin, in its own way, is already accusing Ukraine of preparing provocations against Poland, including involving Belarusians fighting on the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.  Experts have analysed new threats to Europe from Russia, especially for Channel 24.

What is the purpose of these provocations?

Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister  Volodymyr Ogryzko said that Russia’s key goal in Europe is to divide its allies. They seek to sow discord, distrust, and mutual suspicion, and then exploit it. Russia hopes to pit Ukraine against Poland. This is the Kremlin’s eternal dream to rule both Poland and Ukraine.

Important!  The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service stated that Ukraine is allegedly preparing a special DRG operation in Poland against critical infrastructure facilities there. The National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine has already responded that this is nonsense, and that  Russia is thus preparing an alibi for its provocations in the territory of a NATO country.

Moscow has already said that Ukraine had previously repaired several downed Russian drones and is now going to launch them over Poland. I think there is no need to explain that this is nonsense. Especially since it is now very clear who exactly launched this or that aircraft and from where. Russia is simply looking for ways to set up a quarrel between Ukraine and Poland,
– said the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.

He continued that Russia will continue to prioritise undermining NATO relations. In particular, the new Russian budget again allocates billions of dollars for propaganda, to sow discord, mutual hostility, and especially a negative attitude towards Ukraine in the minds of Europeans. In this sense, Russia has not invented anything new.

How is the threat of provocations perceived in Poland?

Political scientist  Volodymyr Fesenko noted that after the defeat in Moldova, Russia does not abandon attempts to create problems in Ukraine’s relations with its neighbours. To do this, they use the tools of hybrid warfare: sabotage, provocations, etc. Western politicians understand that the Ukrainian trace in these provocations is a blatant lie. However, part of the population of Western countries that have anti-Ukrainian sentiments believes in this conspiracy theory.

“The Polish Security Forum is being held in Warsaw these days. Russia is trying to influence discussions on security topics and shift the attention of Poles from how to counter Russian aggression, how to effectively build an air defence system, and how to help Ukraine, to purely provocative topics. However, unfortunately, the threat of DRG in Poland is really possible,” the political scientist emphasised.

According to him, Putin is taking an example from Hitler. For Germany in 1939, the formal pretext for the start of World War II was the execution of German prisoners allegedly by Polish DRGs. Therefore, provocations by the Russians on the territory of Poland are possible. In particular, they can use Belarus, which has a common border with Poland, for this.

From where can Russia realistically conduct a military operation on the territory of Poland?

Reserve Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, pilot instructor, and military expert  Roman Svitan reported that there will definitely be a provocation on the territory of Poland. Russian DRGs will be involved, which will carry out an entry into the territory of Poland. The most realistic scenario is that they will carry it out from the territory of the Kaliningrad region or Belarus.

On these borders, our partners now need to be extremely careful. The best option would be to capture these DRGs, not eliminate them. Then force them to report on the customers of these provocations. European special services should already be involved to counter these provocations, the military expert emphasised.

As he noted, one of the preventive actions for Poland could be to close the border with Belarus. During the Russian-Belarusian military exercises, this step worked, and then China even had to intervene to prevent extraordinary actions from Belarus, in particular, towards Poland.

Russian provocations in Europe: how NATO responds

• Russia may invade Estonia to “protect its Russian-speaking population.” The New York Times believes that  NATO may leave Europe alone with Russia.
• The Times reports that  NATO is preparing to shoot down Russian planes if they violate the airspace of Alliance member countries.
• Finnish President Alexander Stubb said the country would not shoot down unknown aerial targets. Such decisions are made by the commander of the air force and there is a “special protocol” for this.