For Ukraine, of course, this is good news. We see that sanctions are working. That the ruble has become an unreliable currency. That there is a currency shortage in Russia. That the population does not trust their government and buys foreign currency as soon as it appears on the free market. And it is obvious that the population is doing absolutely logically.
All Russians understand that there will be no future economic prosperity. Everyone understands that despite the statement of the Russian government about nominal economic growth (nominal growth can really be), this growth will not have a positive effect on the pockets of Russians, on their ability to pay. Especially when buying imported goods.
What the National Bank of Russia is forced to do. He is forced to print money and send it to the real sector of the economy. Forced to sell the gold and foreign exchange reserves that he still controls. This all leads to inflation, and later leads to hyperinflation.
We can currently observe similar processes in Argentina – in a few years, the rate of the Argentine peso has increased 7 times against the dollar. Everything is similar in Russia today.
So, naturally and logically, Russians will withdraw their bank deposits, as these deposits depreciate. Russians will spend these deposits on the purchase of some goods, mostly imported.
What will banks do, observing the outflow of capital (investments)? Obviously, they will turn to the National Bank, which in turn will increase the discount rate. And the National Bank will give ruble loans to commercial banks that will have a lack of liquidity. That is, in fact, a hyperinflationary collapse is unfolding in Russia.
The Russian government, of course, will try to contain this collapse at the expense of the resources they have for sale — oil, petrochemical processing products, grain, etc. That is, the government will try to do something.
But in general – everything is developing in the right direction – economic sanctions are in effect. These sanctions are slowly but steadily suppressing the Moscow`s Empire. Of course, we (Ukrainians) would like this process to happen much faster. But the market is global. Russia is still trying to find loopholes to circumvent sanctions.
However, Russians who have money (and money gives additional freedom in any society) understand that there is no future. And all your assets from the Russian ruble should be transferred to other currencies, as well as transfer your economic activity to other areas where they will feel more free.
This is my prediction.
