A thousand days of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine are behind us. Putin’s army is stuck in the Donbas, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson fields. The rebel offensive in Syria has begun in earnest, and protests have flared up in Georgia. Putin is scaring Ukraine with “Oreshnik”, but it is not the first time for the Ukrainian people to cross “red lines”. But the Russian currency is drawing a “red line”, its downward flight causing either panic or hope among Russians. And someone is backing up hope with direct actions.
November rublefall
The day of the sharp fall of the ruble has already been called “Black Tuesday”. Gazprombank and dozens of financial institutions “registered” in the Russian Federation fell under US sanctions. Gazprom’s UnionPay is now useless. The Kremlin’s Chinese partners added to the fun by limiting operations with the disgraced bank. Friendship is friendship, but tobacco is something apart.
On Wednesday, the decline continued. It turned out that Putin’s inner circle consists of great economists. Kremlin press secretary Peskov, for example, said that salaries are paid in rubles, so the sovereign economy will not suffer. Slutsky called the ruble “the strongest currency in the world”, apparently confusing the Russian currency with the contents of his pants during meetings with journalists. (Perhaps the late Zhirinovsky, whose party Slutsky inherited, would have come up with a more cheerful answer.) Former Central Bank Chairman Sergei Dubinin predicted that the Russian Federation will withstand inflation of even 50%. They are preparing in advance for Zimbabwean figures of thousands and millions of percent.
People are finding fewer and fewer reasons to “keep the war out of their lives.” Take the exchange rate. The Bank of Russia has suspended foreign exchange transactions until the end of the year. The dollar rate has approached 110 rubles, the euro rate has exceeded this threshold. The key rate may be raised to 25%. Horror stories are appearing about freezing Russians’ deposits. In some places, prices have already jumped up sharply. You have to think twice when thinking about Olivier salad for the New Year. The ingredients of the traditional salad were the first to go up in price.
The Kremlin now has two options: either spend reserve funds to hold up the ruble, or continue the war against Ukraine at the cost of collapsing the national currency. The ruling elite’s choice is obvious. One of Putin’s key oligarchs, Chemezov from Rostec, has already warned against attempts to “cool the economy.” An order has been given: stoke the military-industrial complex with any money from now on. War is above all, the “SVO” is their EVERYTHING. The decision has already matured to the extreme option: the collapsed economy will be raised not by currency instruments, but by commissars at factories and the encirclement of industrial zones.
Elvira Nabiullina tried to keep a low profile in the first days. Putin’s favorite Maxim Oreshkin is also silent. The same one who guaranteed in 2019 that the ruble would not collapse under any circumstances. Who knew about “Kyiv in three days”?
A Storm shadow over the “Oreshnik”
From the Kremlin’s point of view, throwing scraps from the master’s table to subjects is important and useful. However, it is even more important to try to destroy the centre of resistance to imperial expansion. Therefore, money continues to go to war with the freedom-loving neighbour. Ukrainians understand this perfectly well and do not intend to give in.
The front is still hot. The most difficult, according to the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Syrsky, is in the Pokrovsk direction. Ukrainian troops are gradually retreating from Kurakhovo. Toretsk, after fierce battles, is practically occupied. The situation in the Kupyansk area, which Russian troops are also trying to encircle, looks no less dramatic. In the middle of the month, the occupiers entrenched themselves in the industrial zone on the left bank of the Oskol, but on the morning of 27 November, they retreated under fire from Ukrainian artillery. It was reported that internal Russian reserves were being transferred to the Kursk region, but at the moment there is no news of any successes by Putin in this region. FABs are hitting Sudzha. It is obvious that the Kremlin wants to get another trump card before the inauguration of the 45th President of the United States, he is also the 47th.
The missile war has reached a new level. More and more Russian military airfields, warehouses, oil depots, and command posts are testing ATACMS and Storm Shadows. Putin’s response was the launch of the Oreshnik, apparently named after his current favourite Oreshkin. The Ukrainians ignored the opinion of the KGB lieutenant colonel. The attacks on the imperial military infrastructure continue. In addition to missiles, familiar drones are used, which sometimes fly as far as the oil refinery in the city of Salavat. Good help for the fighters for the independence of Bashkortostan.
Putin has no choice but to threaten to hit Kyiv with an Oreshnik. And to turn on the barrel organ of nuclear blackmail in front of the audience at the summit in Astana. The presidents of the CSTO countries listen. And conclude.
Despite the traditional mumbling of Western leaders, the right of Ukrainians to defend themselves and their country is not in doubt. Removing restrictions on the range of strikes allows us to bring victory over the new evil empire closer.
War will overtake everyone
On 23 November, a report appeared about the resignation of yet another Putin commander – the commander of the “South” group, Colonel General Gennady Anashkin. It would seem that the tradition is continuing, a new arrest is just around the corner. But soon the commander, dismissed for misinforming his superiors, was appointed head of the Frunze Military Academy. Perhaps the Kremlin has decided not to throw away talented swindlers and embezzlers anymore. Especially since in the education system, including the military, the demand for such personnel is growing every day.
Strangely, Anashkin was not sent to manage children’s institutions. The State Duma of the Russian Federation recently became concerned with the issue of teaching the “fundamentals of statehood” from kindergarten. Someone has to be engaged in zombifying the enslaved population from a young age. Hence the talk about the possible mobilization of high school students. This is just a trial balloon, a test of reaction. Older Russians received a warning in the form of cancellation of all previously issued reservations from 21 March 2025.
War will reach everyone sooner or later. Through education or the economy. With the help of a drone or a cruise missile. Everyone will receive a summons. You don’t need “Gosuslugi” to receive this summons.
Worldwide affair
The economy is important, but the empire will be destroyed in other ways. Sanctions have a long-term effect, but they are not a universal weapon. Realizing this, the Kremlin is not so much hitting money (although it is hitting that too), but ideas. For example, a week ago, the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation recognized the Forum of Free States of Post-Russia and its 172 branches as terrorist organizations. The idea of liberating conquered nations is what is dangerous for Putin’s nomenklatura.
It is even harsher when the idea is confirmed by action. When Putin’s punisher Valery Trankovsky’s car flies into the air in Sevastopol. When the Federal Bailiff Service building burns in Novosibirsk. When a train carrying coal for the front explodes in Bashkortostan.
Ukraine’s war of self-defence and liberation has a global dimension. General Syrsky talks about the upcoming counterattacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Syrian rebels have launched a sweeping offensive in several regions at once – Idlib, Aleppo, and Hama. Dictator Assad, a vassal of Tehran and Moscow, begs his masters for help. Georgia has risen up against Putin’s vassal oligarch Ivanishvili: government offices have caught fire, cobblestones are flying at the punishers, and people are protesting from the capital Tbilisi to the highland Chuberi. Resistance to oppression is worldwide. The struggle continues.
Fedor Shaporenko
