If we set aside emotions and consider all the described events within a single logical framework, what emerges for Russia is not just another crisis, but a scenario of systemic collapse of its external contours of survival. In recent years, Moscow has relied not only on its own resources, but on a network of political and sanction “grey zones”, in which regimes such as Venezuela and Iran played a key role. They provided alternative oil trade routes, served as financial and logistical “laundries” for circumventing sanctions, and allowed the Kremlin to maintain the illusion of a broad anti-American front. Simultaneous pressure on Caracas and Tehran does not affect individual allies, but rather the very architecture of this survival, because the loss of even one link triggers a chain reaction that sharply narrows Moscow’s ability to manoeuvre between constraints.
A particular threat to the Kremlin is not so much the fact of the West’s negotiations with representatives of foreign regimes as the method behind them. If the information about US contacts with individual figures in the Venezuelan elite is true, it means that the United States of America is working not with the regimes as monoliths, but with their internal divisions, creating conditions for a controlled change of power under the guise of a “behaviour change” formula. For Russian elites, this is an extremely toxic signal because it undermines the basic principle of their loyalty: personal loyalty no longer guarantees security, and individual agreements become a realistic scenario. Even the appearance in the information space of the names of key Russian oligarchs as possible participants in contacts with the West, regardless of the degree of reliability of such leaks, works as a form of psychological pressure that undermines the internal unity of the system.
Additionally, the situation is exacerbated by the oil factor, which is the main nerve of the Russian economy. Moscow is critically dependent on high prices, a shadow fleet and alternative buyers, and any reshaping of energy flows directly affects its financial stability. The scenario in which Venezuela switches to the format of exclusive energy cooperation with the United States means not only the loss of one of the key partners in sanctions cooperation, but also additional pressure on the world oil balance, which reduces the space for Russian dumping. If, in parallel, Iran enters a phase of internal destabilisation, Russia risks losing an important military-technological donor, without which support for the war and external operations becomes more expensive and more difficult.
As a result, the Kremlin is facing not just one threat, but a whole cascade of negative prospects: external isolation is becoming irreversible, allies are increasingly turning into temporary and unreliable assets, the internal nervousness of the elites is growing, and the space for bargaining with the West is rapidly narrowing. Against this background, the Ukrainian factor is also strengthening, because Russia is weakening not only at the front, but primarily in the rear – economic, diplomatic and elite. When Venezuela and Iran are simultaneously swaying, it looks like a geopolitical “two-move chess game”, in which the blow is being prepared not on the periphery, but on the very centre of the system, and in this game, Russia is actually left with only one resource – time, which works against it.
Viktor Yahun
Facebook 
