The question is not as innocent as it seems. Russian media scumbags are actively fanning the topic of creating a “Narva People’s Republic” on the territory of modern Estonia. There are reports in the media that a strike group is being formed in the Leningrad Military District of the Russian Federation, clearly to attack one of Russia’s neighbours. Finland is often mentioned. But Estonia is not far away.
Will Moscow dare to do such a thing, having an open front in Ukraine? I answer that in my opinion, any analysis of Russia should begin and end with the phrase “They are inadequate”. Then everything will fall into place.
Yes, if necessary, Putin will burn another 100-200 thousand orcs in the fire of war and return Russia to the 18th century, when not only mobile Internet but also kerosene and boots with grandchildren were considered happiness. Intoxicated by propaganda and post-imperial syndrome, the Russian population will happily run to “do a dirty deed to the Talapons.”
Is all this realistic? Let the Estonians not be offended, but I am convinced they can only fight back under two conditions. Either Estonia immediately militarises itself to the point of harshly busifying the evaders, dispatching at least a brigade of its military to the Armed Forces of Ukraine to gain combat experience. Or the defence along the Estonian border should be taken up by a couple of brigades of the Armed Forces of the 72nd or 24th level.
Both the first and the second are fantastic. So…
But Estonia is a member of NATO, you might say. Yes, and that is why a successful operation to seize part of the territory of Estonia will be a victory for Putin that he can sell to his population.
Putin’s main problem now, the same as Captain John Silver’s, is that the team is dissatisfied. The Russians see that to get to overthrow Ukraine is as realistic as to get to heaven on foot, and in the meantime, their cemeteries have grown, prices are rising, and they are already delaying salaries for state employees. The question arises – why did they not win? The history of Russia testifies. It is a couple of steps from such questions to the slogan “the tsar is not real.” Not only are the masses dissatisfied, but the Russian elites are also dissatisfied. Putin desperately needs a victory that will satisfy everyone.
What will happen if Moscow does seize the territory near Narva, where (by the way) about 70% of the population is ethnic Russian?
First, Russia will reportedly gain territory. Second, “the insolent Talapons will be punished for all their previous wrongdoings,” which will be orgasmic pleasure for the Russians.
Finally, thirdly (and this is the main thing), all this will be presented as a resounding victory over… the NATO bloc. Because Estonia is a member of NATO. And because in the event of a Russian attack on Estonia, NATO must activate Article 5 of its charter and the fleets of Britain, Germany, Poland, and Denmark must enter the Baltic and begin to transform Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg into a lunar landscape, with the subsequent landing of troops and the return of the former German-Polish Knyongsberg/Krulevtsev and the Swedish Nyenschanz (now St. Petersburg) to their native harbour.
Because if all of this does not happen, the NATO bloc will be able to order a coffin with music. The day when NATO does not come to the aid of Estonia will be the last day of the NATO bloc. Because who needs a military alliance that does not provide military assistance?
And this is exactly it – the actual destruction of the NATO bloc will be the victory against the background of which Putin will be able to end the war in Ukraine on Ukraine’s terms – that is, along the existing front line. With nuances.
Then big politics will begin, because Putin will begin to intimidate Europe with a new expansion, in which NO ONE will help each individual country. And believe me, there will be politicians in Europe who will want to appease Moscow. I will not be surprised if, after this, Poland erects monuments to Hetman Khmelnytsky and General Shukhevych in order to persuade Ukraine to a joint military alliance. Well, because we know how to fight.
Is such an option possible? I remind you once again – they are inadequate. However, this option can be prevented. To do this, Ukraine needs to be given even more weapons. In order to finally turn the situation on the front, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine are already advancing in two areas.
Dmytro “Kalynchuk” Vovnianko
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