Last year’s NATO summit in Vilnius did not bring expected results for Ukraine. Ukraine never received an invitation to join NATO. The jubilee summit in Washington, which took place a few days ago, was supposed to continue the policy of strategic uncertainty and refrain from increasing the degree of escalation with Russia. The Ukrainian issue was to be put on the back burner, and Ukraine was to receive another package of military aid and the promise of a “bridge to NATO” as compensation.
However, in promoting the strategy of isolating Ukraine, Putin seems to have outdone himself. The NATO summit became a cold shower for the Russian dictator. Not only because on the sidelines of the summit, Biden’s description of Putin as a “bloodthirsty madman” was one of the mildest definitions of a Kremlin war criminal.
Understanding that, on the one hand, Russia is pressuring the West with the demand not to take Ukraine into NATO under any circumstances, on the other hand, it is conducting a huge informational and psychological operation among the Ukrainian population “saying why all these sacrifices, the West will never accept you”, opponents to accept Ukraine into NATO (according to French President Macron, it means the USA and Germany) had to change their minds.
Therefore, the NATO summit in Washington became more Ukrainian than expected. Perhaps the consequence of this was the continuation of Putin’s aggressive destruction of the world order. Attempts to break through international isolation with friendly meetings with the countries of the Global South, primarily India and Vietnam, countries that play an important role in opposing Chinese hegemony in Asia. The revelation, on the eve of a huge network of Kremlin bots in the USA, and the disclosure of an attempt to kill the director of the largest powerful German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, Armin Papperger, also had an impact.
The summit itself took place against the background of the merciless rocket bombardment of Kyiv and the deliberate hitting of the largest children’s hospital.
It seems that the West has realized that Putin sees his rational policy of not escalating and not expanding the war as a weakness. What’s more, Putin overactively began to interfere in the internal politics of NATO member states, trying to undermine the positions of supporters of Ukraine and encouraging destructive forces as much as possible.
After all, the US presidential election, and the anniversary NATO summit as Biden’s launch pad, were also undoubtedly an important element.
In the end, instead of an ephemeral “bridge” in the final declaration, a clear and imperative message “the future of Ukraine is in NATO” and its clarification “We will continue to support Ukraine on its irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including membership in NATO”.
At the summit in Washington, Ukraine continued to conclude bilateral security agreements, which become the foundation of the international security architecture for the period before the accession to NATO. On the sidelines of the Summit, relevant documents were concluded with Romania.
Another diplomatic Ukrainian victory was the participants’ consolidation of the bilateral agreements into a defence alliance and the signing by the USA, 21 NATO member states, the EU and Japan of the “Ukrainian Compact”, which provides for the “acceleration of collective efforts to meet the comprehensive needs of Ukraine in the field of security”. The signatory states undertook to: support Ukraine’s urgent needs in the field of defence and security; and accelerate the development of the Armed Forces. In the event of a future Russian attack on Ukraine after the end of the current hostilities, quickly and collectively gather at the highest level to determine steps to support Ukraine.
Also, the members of the Alliance undertook to provide Ukraine with a minimum base funding of at least 40 billion euros for the year 2025 during the following year.
Along with this, Ukraine also received operational military aid packages from individual countries. The largest aid package of 250 million dollars was provided by Australia. Another “Patriot” battery, anti-aircraft missiles and ammunition will be promptly provided from US warehouses for Ukraine’s military needs. The expected F-16s are about to appear in the sky of Ukraine.
In general, the tactics of intimidation, bribery, and stimulation of fake peacekeepers produced the opposite result.
Maximally exhausted in continuous frontal meat attacks, instead of the promised respite and the capitulation of Ukraine on his terms, Putin received the consolidation of the West and the determination to support Ukraine with guaranteed financing and the deployment and scaling of military production.
In this arms race in the war of attrition, Russia will not be able to win against the power of the West, even with the help of North Korea and Iran and with the quiet assistance of China. Although a black cat seems to have run away with the Celestial Empire. China does not really like the multi-vector self-activity of its at least economic vassal, so the sharp reduction in turnover and problems with bank transfers are the first hints of who is the boss in the house. Situational anti-American allies have more contradictions, and the constant waving of the nuclear stick is quite annoying to Beijing.
Therefore, in the war of resources, Ukraine is moving upward, and Russia is moving in the opposite direction.
However, there is one resource that Ukraine can supply only by itself – soldiers. Putin, who easily trades thousands of lives for an increase in territories, even if it is a destroyed plantation or a village wiped off the face of the earth, is ready to throw into frontal attacks everyone who is at hand, hoping to crush Ukraine en masse. Ukraine, which can count on a constant increase in military power, must preserve its human potential so that, having received a technological advantage, it is banal to have someone to develop success.
In this chessboard, which Putin is constantly trying to turn into a game of draughts, to achieve a result, it is necessary to preserve not only the king but also the pieces. Currently, there is more and more talk in Russia about a new mobilization, the only possible tool to save the situation. However, this tool carries many threats. This new horde must be clothed, fed and armed. With the mass facts of fierce attacks on mopeds and bicycles with resources in Russia, everything is very bad. Going into battle against the backdrop of the non-return of all who were before you, is not the same as going to Kyiv in three days.
Understanding the essence of the situation, Putin will traditionally raise the stakes. So the summer of 2024 will be especially hot…
