Almost half of the world’s population will go to the polls this year – presidents and parliaments will be elected in more than 50 countries.
This year, presidents will be elected in the USA and appointed in Russia. 27 countries of the European Union will elect a new European Parliament. In parallel, presidential or parliamentary elections will be held in some EU countries – Austria, Belgium, Lithuania, Slovakia, Portugal, Romania, Croatia and Finland.
Elections will be held in India, Indonesia, Mexico, and South Korea. Russia’s allies will reassign power to Iran.
For Russia, elections in other countries are a way of global external aggression, a way to sow chaos, inflame conflicts within countries, and use democratic tools, including freedom of media and speech, to bring about war by political methods.
Russia’s global goal is to “load” democratic countries with an election war so that they cannot respond in a timely and adequate manner to the external threats of authoritarian and totalitarian regimes, in particular, Russia’s unprovoked aggression against Ukraine. Also, Russia will try to destroy the unity of European countries regarding the support of Ukraine.
So, let’s consider how Russia will wage an election war in different countries.
USA
On November 5, 2024, the 60th American presidential election will be held in the United States. The main task of Russia in these elections is to plunge the USA into the uncontrollable harsh chaos of the election war through a network of bots and paid agents of influence, highlighting and heating up the political contradictions between the leading parties as much as possible. Russia is already trying to destroy the bipartisan support of Ukraine, to eliminate the leadership role of the USA in opposing Russian aggression in Ukraine. In previous US elections, Russia has already tested aggressive technologies to interfere in American elections, in particular through a network of bots in social networks. Also, Moscow will maximally highlight the position of the left- and right-wing radical fringe wings of American politics, which are advocating the termination of military aid to Ukraine. Among the presidential candidates in this plan is the self-nominated candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who demands an end to aid to Ukraine.
Of course, one cannot do without the destructive formation campaign of the well-known American blogger and journalist Tucker Carlson, who is officially employed by “Russia Today”.
European Parliament
On June 6-9, 2024, more than 400 million European voters will elect more than 700 deputies for five years. Russia’s task is to maximize the success of Eurosceptics and populists. Although it is predicted, given the trends of the last elections, the EU will “correct”, the victory of the populists is hardly realistic, despite the successes of Eurosceptics in the national elections in the Netherlands and Slovakia and the growth of their support in Austria and Germany.
Currently, polls show the superiority of two main groups in the European Parliament: the centre-right European People’s Party and the centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, who should finish first, albeit with a smaller share of the vote than now.
The emergence of Orban’s new partners in Europe, such as the Slovak Prime Minister, and leader of the Smer-SD party, Robert Fico, poses a greater threat. Currently, the greatest growth in the popularity of Eurosceptics is observed in Austria, a country that is significantly influenced by Russian corruption capital.
Although the “shredding” of Europe (the bribery of key political players by Russia) is political death for any European politician, Russia continues to try to keep a part of European countries on the gas and oil needle, influencing their politics.
The consensus principle of voting in the EU, as well as the destructive position of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who unexpectedly, after the resignation of the President of the European Council Charles Michel, can head the meeting of the European Council in July on a rotational basis, may complicate decision-making regarding aid to Ukraine. Therefore, the EU countries are looking for a way to avoid such a scenario, and if necessary, to deprive Hungary of the right to vote and receive European funds.
India
India’s parliamentary elections are contested by the centre-right National Democratic Alliance, led by current Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the centre-left, led by the once-ruling Indian National Congress.
Currently, the position of the current government looks more convincing. Therefore, one should not expect a sharp change in India’s position towards Ukraine. The Indian government is taking a wait-and-see position, trying to create alliances with the West in opposition to its main rival – China, while at the same time “making money” on the economic isolation of Russia, buying energy resources and diamonds from it, trying not to fall under the sanctions of the West. Bribing Russia is unlikely to override India’s strategic goals in economic development and security plans.
Indonesia
Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s regional leader and the country with the world’s largest Muslim population, will hold elections in February. For many years, the country has been subjected to the systematic work of Russian diplomacy and propaganda to distort the assessment of Russian aggression in Ukraine. Therefore, one of the main contenders for power – the country’s current Minister of Defence, Prabowo Subianto, in June 2023 came up with a strange proposal for a peace plan for Ukraine, which included a referendum “on disputed territories.” Although pro-Russian narratives are actively spread in Indonesia and the country has not joined the anti-Russian sanctions, it will continue to try to balance the interests of China (its largest trading partner) and the United States (a security ally), which can become partners in countering Chinese territorial claims, so will not take an openly anti-Ukrainian position.
South Africa
The Republic of South Africa, formally a member of BRICS, countries that have not joined the anti-Russian sanctions, did not provide personal security guarantees to Putin during the summit of the organization in Johannesburg on August 22-24, because of the arrest warrant of the International Criminal Court. In South Africa, as in other African countries, Russia tries to speculate on topics of anti-colonial struggle with the West. In the upcoming elections in South Africa for the first time since the fall of apartheid, the ruling African National Congress may not hold on to sole power, leading to the formation of the first coalition government and deepening internal problems. Therefore, we should not expect a radical change in the position regarding Ukraine.
Mexico
In June 2024, presidential elections will be held in Mexico. For the first time, a woman can become the president of the country. The candidate from the ruling centre-left party, Claudia Sheinbaum, and the candidate from the opposition coalition Broad Front for Mexico, entrepreneur Sochitl Gálvez, will compete.
Until now, Mexico has tried to maintain neutrality in the Russo-Ukrainian war, criticized excessive US military aid to Ukraine, while not supporting Russian aggression and voted for important UN resolutions condemning Russia in the war. It seems that the outcome of the election will not significantly change Mexico’s approach to the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Taiwan
Taiwan’s presidential and parliamentary elections in January could be a major trigger for the security situation in the Pacific region and the South China Sea, through which about 40% of world trade passes. China has long and consistently asserted its right to sovereignty over Taiwan. Currently, the representative of the liberal “Democratic Progressive Party” Lai Tsinde, who advocates the independence of Taiwan, and the Kuomintang Hou Yui, who advocates a consensus with China within the framework of the “one China” policy, are claiming power. Until now, China has used soft methods to influence elections, including disinformation and economic incentives, while demonstrating its military power near Taiwan. Time will tell whether Russia will convince China to take advantage of the moment when the US is maximally involved on two fronts – the Middle East and on the eastern flank of NATO, and militarily resolve the issue of Taiwan, but in the event of a military operation, events in the world will have an unpredictable character. At least Russia is very interested in this.
Sowing chaos, breeding disinformation, and overloading the electoral systems of democratic countries is an element of Russia’s foreign policy and military strategy.
At the same time, elections will be held in 2024 in Iran, Russia’s key military ally, and in Russia itself.
Iran
In May 2024, Iran will hold its first elections since the mass protests in 2022 related to the death of Mahsa Amina. Given the electoral system and the example of previous races, when more than 7,000 candidates (almost half of those who intended to run) were not allowed to run for office, it is in principle impossible to change Iran’s position through elections. However, the impudent deletion of any expression of political views can push the country to mass protests again.
Just as it is impossible to call Putin’s appointment in Russia in March 2024 an election. There are no political freedoms in the country, the free press and political competition have been destroyed. The political arena has been completely cleaned up. It is not just a question of serious anti-war candidates, even ultra-patriots, supporters of war, are prohibited from obstructing the coronation of Putin, who has been ruling longer than Stalin. But here the stick has two ends. Now the tsar bears sole responsibility for everything that Russia does. The non-recognition of the elections by the international community and the ICC’s arrest warrant are only the first bell.
Yuriy Syrotyuk
