Backed into a corner by sanctions and international isolation, Russia is trying to destabilize the security situation in the world as much as possible, destroy trade supply chains, plunge the world economy into recession on the eve of the elections in the USA and the European Parliament. The task of Russia’s allies, the DPRK, is to radicalize the situation in the Pacific region, and for Iran to maximally destabilize the Middle East, an eternally explosive region in religious and ethnic terms, as well as a major player in the global energy supply market and the transport corridor through the Red Sea.
Iran initially acted through its proxies in Gaza, Hamas launched an attack on Israel, expecting retaliatory action from the latter and drawing the US into another wave of Arab-Israeli confrontation.
Another ally of Iran, Hezbollah, has become more active on the Lebanese border. All this is included in the tactics of asymmetric warfare, which Iran is conducting against its rivals. It consists of the fact that Iran, besieged by sanctions, cannot compete with the technological and economic potential of the United States and Israel on an equal footing. Therefore, Iran does not spend significant resources on the creation of large ships or aircraft, it concentrates on the development of the “mosquito fleet” (fast manoeuvrable boats, missile programmes and drones). But it declared a fight with the enemy on the distant approaches to move the line of battle away from its borders and as close as possible to the enemy. Iran has saturated Israel’s borders with pro-Iranian proxies in Syria, Libya and Palestine, while constantly threatening US bases in Syria and Iraq. In Iraq, Iran’s ally is the Shiite militia Hashd al-Shaabi (“People’s Mobilization Forces”), in Yemen the Houthi movement (which is currently destabilizing the situation in the Red Sea, threatening to interrupt one of the world’s most important trade routes) and Shiite brigades and groups in Syria.
Moreover, Iran’s tactics are very simple, strike where you can now, stretching the enemy’s forces as much as possible and destabilizing the situation. The total number of Iranian proxies (called the “Axis of Resistance”) reaches several hundred thousand fighters, not counting the Armed Forces of Iran itself.
In the first stage of the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, Iran fought exclusively through its own proxies. The trigger was an unexpected mass attack by Hamas on Israel. To prevent Israel from fully focusing on Palestine, Hezbollah is showing limited activity to withdraw its forces. Pro-Iranian forces in Iraq (which number more than a hundred thousand fighters) and Syria resorted to regular attacks and strikes on American facilities. Since October 2023, there have been more than 115 such strikes. Next, the Houthis were introduced into the battle, which launched symbolic missile attacks on Israel and proceeded to seize ships in the Red Sea. In response to each attack against itself, Israel regularly strikes Iranian proxies in Lebanon and Syria, and the British-American coalition struck the Houthis in Yemen. The United States also began striking the positions of the Iraqi Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi.
Last week, to raise the level of tension even more, Iran directly, without hiding behind its mercenaries, launched a series of missile attacks on targets in Syria, Iraq and Pakistan, demonstrating its missile potential to the USA and Israel in particular. One of the ballistic missiles launched at ISIS positions in Syria covered a distance of almost 1,500 km, is capable of reaching Israel, is extremely accurate and capable of overcoming air defense systems. The presence of a new type of missile, which can be transferred to a proxy to launch strikes on Israel or American military targets, further demonstrates the willingness to raise the stakes in the game. The task of missile strikes on Pakistan further increased the degree of tension in the region. One of the targets of such an unprovoked attack was the likely transfer of ammunition by Pakistan to Ukraine.
Iran’s strategy is obvious, to push the US military presence out of the Middle East and defeat Israel, which, in their opinion, will not be able to resist in all directions for a long time.
At the same time, missile strikes, say, on the oil structure of Saudi Arabia, to further provoke an energy crisis in the world, are not excluded.
To force the USA to act actively in many world theatres of war is part of Russia’s strategy to make assistance to Ukraine as unattainable as possible. Iran, on the other hand, which began to act openly, can finally bear responsibility for its destabilizing actions in the Middle East and the supply of weapons to Russia in its war of aggression in Europe. American missiles fly precisely farther and more accurately. All that is needed is a political solution.
Yuriy Syrotyuk
