The 11th year of Russian aggression in Ukraine and the third full-scale year are mistakenly called the war of attrition phase. Although in reality, the events took on the obvious genocidal character of a war of extermination.
The complete destruction of Ukrainian statehood within any territorial boundaries and Ukrainian identity is the undisguised goal of Russian aggression.
Unfortunately, the traditional policy of “appeasement” of the aggressor, an attempt “not to anger Putin”, led the latter to believe that the West is weak and incapable of decisive action.
Therefore, Putin, having formed a “coalition of evil”, is already waging an open war against the established world order and the positions of the West in all corners of the world. Half-hearted sanctions that Russia easily circumvents (look at the number of Western components in Russian missiles released after 2022), untimely and insufficient aid to Ukraine with a limited assortment and the nature of the means that the West plans to transfer to Ukraine are announced each time in advance, allow Russia to prepare in a planned manner before the arrival of the next limited batch of Western weapons, mostly of an outdated nature, to the front.
For example, the F-16 aircraft (which this year celebrates its 50th anniversary since its appearance), which could have influenced the climate of the war at the end of 2022 or at least in the first half of 2023, and was guaranteed to appear in Ukrainian skies in the spring of 2024, have still not entered the battle, while Russia has seized the initiative and is pushing the front line with a huge number of heavy guided aerial bombs, which are being dropped by Russian bombers without hindrance.
What’s more, even in the third year of full-scale deployment, Russia continues to have a complete missile monopoly and uses it to operate deep into the territory of Ukraine. At this stage, the Putin regime is purposefully destroying critical civilian infrastructure, taking advantage of the limited capabilities of Ukrainian air defences and the depletion of their ammunition.
Only recently, the Russians dealt a tangible blow to the manoeuvring capacity of the Ukrainian energy system, damaging the Zaporizhzhia HPP and destroying almost all thermal power plants in the country. On 11 April 2024, Russia carried out demonstrative strikes on the Trypil TPP in the vicinity of Kyiv. The lack of air defence systems and ammunition for them will only push Russia to the further destruction of Ukraine, the complete destruction of its economic potential.
At the same time, Russia is increasingly, systematically resorting to Syrian tactics of missile-bomb terror against the civilian population. Systematic strikes are terrorizing one of the largest European cities of millions, Kharkiv, and the UNESCO World Heritage Site of Odesa is being destroyed. The war has returned to the northern regions of Ukraine: Sumy is under constant attack, as a result of a recent barbaric attack on ancient Chernihiv, 18 people died and another 77 were injured.
Taking full advantage of the air, Russia brazenly manoeuvres its strike drones throughout the territory of Ukraine for almost half a day, often violating the airspace of neighbouring countries, including NATO members.
Turning a blind eye to direct demonstrative aggression in the space of NATO countries, the latter, whatever their motives, only increases the appetites of the Kremlin. All Ukrainian requests for “closing the sky” or at least help to cover the air of the western regions of Ukraine bordering NATO countries, in order to unload the air defense system, have so far been fruitless, despite the promise of supporting Ukraine as much as necessary.
Especially bitter for Ukrainians are the comparisons made by our allies during the recent missile and drone attack by Iran on Israel. Despite the insane number of means of destruction, more than 400 missiles of various types and kamikaze drones, almost all of them were destroyed by the Israeli air defense system and the aircraft of NATO countries, in particular the USA, Great Britain and France, on the approach to the territory of Israel. In this context, the lack of any reaction to the crossing of the airspace of NATO countries on the eastern flank looks telling, despite clumsy attempts at justification.
At a time when Russia has built up a 10-to-1 advantage in artillery on the front, Ukraine’s Western allies are unable to fulfill even last year’s promise of a million shells. It seems that North Korea and Iran, which have been under sanctions for many decades, are able to satisfy the needs of the Russian aggressors more effectively and in much larger volumes than the entire civilized world can help Ukraine. Despite the degradation and stagnation of Western defence production capacities, this is only a half-truth to justify the impossibility of providing at least the minimum needs of Ukraine. The whole world sees that when there is a desire, for example, the Czech Republic and Estonia, which are small territorially and geopolitically, can quickly find the required amount of ammunition.
The pre-election political confrontation in the USA, which froze bipartisan support for Ukraine and delayed the much-needed aid package for Ukraine, was very painfully reflected in the events on the front and in the rear of Ukraine. Whenever there are discussions that aid to Ukraine is expensive, the delays only escalate the price of the next most needed aid packages.
Let’s imagine if in 2022 Ukraine, which was beating and chasing the Russian army with outdated Soviet weapons, immediately received the maximum and unlimited aid package, the price of expenses, as well as geopolitical tension, would be many times smaller. If the West does not want to lose its position in the world and not become the next object of aggression in different parts of the world, effective assistance to Ukraine is inevitable from a sane point of view.
Of course, the feeling that Ukraine is being helped to the extent that Ukrainians die at the front instead of winning is a bitter blow to the feelings of Ukrainian society. Something the enemy will certainly try to take advantage of. The peak of the enemy’s attacks will fall at the end of spring and the beginning of summer, when Russia will launch a large-scale information and psychological operation about the illegitimacy of the Ukrainian government, simultaneously forcing the situation at the front.
The Ukrainian army will fight at the front despite any geopolitical climate, but the timeliness and adequacy of Western aid will be a test of the sincerity of our allies. It seems that Putin calculated the situation well and believed that he had eliminated the USA from the game at least until the end of the presidential race, which is why he is intensifying the events. But I want to believe that Putin miscalculated, as he has already done more than once with Ukraine. Ukraine will fight. It is desirable that this battle of David against Goliath can at least be slightly balanced by allied air defence systems and artillery ammunition. The West must finally put an end to the Russian air monopoly. Then the Ukrainians will put a cross on Russian imperialism.
Otherwise, the world may fail and not get out of the old rut, when the two previous world wars were fought for Ukraine and on the territory of Ukraine. In this regard, the results of the vote in the House of Representatives of the US Congress on 20 April and the promptness of their implementation will show to what end the world has bought its tickets…
