There are already prerequisites for the destruction of the Russian Federation. The lack of a national identity of Russians, huge social inequality between the residents of the capital and the regions, the destruction of the infrastructure — these and other factors, according to Bugaisky, undermine the foundation of Russian statehood and will inevitably lead to the formation of new independent republics (not necessarily national ones) on the ashes of the former empire.
Death of Putin
—In 1917, when the Russian Empire was falling apart, it was preceded by riots in the army. When the Soviet Union was collapsing, the whole world was also changing, and the economic situation was so dire that people in Moscow had nothing to eat, shops were empty. I don’t see anything similar now. Why do you think that Russia will collapse now?
In Russia, there has been a long period of time when people do not see a future in this economic system. The neglect of the infrastructure, the problematic health care system, dependence on remote regions where oil and gas are extracted, the pervasiveness of corruption (which used to work, but now you just have to pay more, and it has become more difficult to get the desired service) — all these factors accumulate, and one cannot be sure that people will continue to remain passive. In addition, the government sends its citizens to war, from which they return in body bags.
How many people in 1916 could have imagined that a Russian army so loyal to the tsar would suddenly revolt and mutiny? There was even such a phrase: Russia has only two allies: the army and the navy. But people couldn’t stand that poverty anymore.
— There is an opinion in Ukraine that if Putin dies, the war will end and all problems will be solved immediately. Do you think this is true?
No need to personalize the problem. There is a ruling layer, the Russian elite, which is imperialistic. There are people in Putin’s circle who want to end the war. But there are those who believe that the war, on the contrary, should be more brutal. I would not assume that if Putin is killed tonight, Russia’s policy towards Ukraine will change dramatically.
— Name 10 factors that will cause the collapse of Russia.
1. There is no clear national identity in Russia. It has failed to identify itself as a civil state, a national, ethnic or multi-ethnic state, or even as an imperial state.
2. Russia failed to develop strong institutions of statehood that can hold the country together. The country is based on the so-called vertical power. This is a very personalized mode. Even the Soviet government had a communist party that held the country together.
3. The war in Ukraine showed many weaknesses of the Russian state. The entire state is built on a fragile foundation.
4. The Russian economy is shrinking more and more due to sanctions. This is especially affected by the decrease in profits from the sale of energy, because the sanctions have partially cut off Russia from the European market.
5. Huge losses in the war against Ukraine showed the weaknesses of the Russian army, exposed the incompetence of the regime, the corruption of all its institutions.
6. Accumulated images that arose in the regions due to their economic exploitation by the center.
7. Images of different nations and ethnic groups within Russia, which arose because of the language law, the destruction of federalism, the mixing of different regions together, the denial of ethnic rights. This dissatisfaction is not yet publicly expressed, but it is already “boiling”.
8. When the regime loses the war in Ukraine, its inability to hold the country together, especially after the loss of Crimea, will become visible. Russia does not recognize the borders of other countries, but its own borders will then also be in question.
9. Many governors in the regions have a sense of choice: whether to stay with Moscow while Russia is falling apart, or, as happened in the Soviet Union, to become not just the leader of their region, but of their own independent state.
10. Empires cannot exist indefinitely – sooner or later they collapse. We live in a world where small and medium-sized countries play a large role in international institutions and have a voice.
— All these are preconditions that already exist, but should Western countries actively work on the collapse of Russia?
We can only have a limited influence on what happens inside Russia. Especially now, when we are not involved in any democracy building programs. But all the same, the fate of Russia will be decided only by its inhabitants (I do not call them Russians, because not all inhabitants of Russia are ethnic Russians).
Russian citizens will decide the fate of their country in the same way that Ukrainians decided the fate of Ukraine.
However, Western countries can play a role in this process. First, it is the management and control of any negative effects from the collapse of Russia. This, for example, could be a war or provocations by the Russian Federation against neighboring countries with the help of refugees, or a major economic or humanitarian disaster.
Second, the West can play a major role in informing Russian citizens about the situation in their country. Of course, the Kremlin media does not talk about all the factors that will cause the collapse of Russia – the decline of the economy, the destruction of infrastructure, etc. People see it all with their own eyes, but they don’t see it happening on a national scale. It is the Western countries that are able to tell in detail about these big problems.
And we can promote democracy in these countries at the international diplomatic level. If the West’s official agenda is to spread democracy around the world, that is exactly what we should be doing. To talk about the importance of respecting people’s rights, the rights of ethnic minorities, and the right to self-determination. We must be ready for everything that can happen in Russia after its collapse, because we were not ready for what was formed after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Passive Russians
— How do you think it is possible to reach Russians if they live under a huge dome of propaganda and many Russian citizens are not very interested in looking for alternative sources of information?
I wouldn’t say so. Many young people are beginning to doubt the expediency of this war and mobilization for an army that is being destroyed on the battlefield. You might be surprised at the number of people who are very passive right now, but they are willing to read the news about what is really happening.
And it was the same in Soviet times. I remember how people in the West said that propaganda had brainwashed Soviet citizens and nothing would help them. But it turned out to be untrue – there was a great demand for truthful information in the USSR.
In addition, now, in the information age, it has become much easier to convey some information. In the 1970s and 1980s, it was necessary to print physical copies of newspapers or leaflets and secretly smuggle them into the USSR. Now people have computers, laptops, phones — information can be obtained from everywhere.
And, of course, there is a large diaspora from national minorities, in which there is a growing feeling that something is wrong in Russia.
A good example is the Adyghs, who live in three republics in Russia, as well as in Turkey and the countries of the Middle East. And in this community, a clear awareness of what exactly is happening in Russia is growing. The same thing occurs in Buryat and Kalmyk communities. There are many people in Russia with whom to communicate about its problems, so that they feel more emboldened to act and not isolated from the world.
— Russian citizens have proven themselves to be a very passive nation — I don’t remember any powerful speeches after the Bolotnaya protests. Is it even realistic that they can rise up and organize a big protest that will change the history of Russia?
First, it’s not. After the protests, there were other powerful performances on Bolotnaya. For example, in 2020, protests began in Khabarovsk Krai against the arrest of ex-governor Serhiy Furgal.
I also wrote in my book that environmental protests are constantly breaking out in various parts of Russia. Bad ecology also plays an important role in the mood of the population. After all, it is not only about protecting the environment, but also about the health of people and their children.
We cannot predict when a powerful protest will break out, because they arise very quickly and spontaneously.
After the start of the major invasion of Ukraine, there were also more protests in Russia. We may not even know about many of them, because the Kremlin has banned some independent journalists from the West from entering the country. And official propaganda does not cover such protests.
Let us recall the revolutionary times – when the Russian Empire lost the war, the economy collapsed, the central government no longer had the power it used to have, and people stopped believing in propaganda – all these factors caused the revolution then and can cause protests now.
In my book, I write that these protests will not be the same in different parts of Russia. It will be a long process with various types of uprisings, power struggles and conflicts, sometimes violent. Therefore, it should not be assumed that all this will happen overnight. But something important will happen.
— Something similar to the Revolution of Dignity in Ukraine?
Maybe. Something similar could happen in Moscow or St. Petersburg. Or there may be a coup with the participation of nationalists, who may be even more extremist politically or ideologically than Putin. After all, Putin is disliked by nationalists in Russia.
That is, it will not be one integral revolution for democracy throughout the country, as happened with the Revolution of Dignity. These will be nationalist revolutions, anti-state coups, ethnic or religious conflicts. Something similar is already happening in Russia — for example, in Moscow, nationalists oppose the construction of a mosque. Although more Muslims live in Moscow than in any other European city. At the same time, we see massive demonstrations by Muslims against discrimination.
Valeriya Pavlenko
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