They talked about the prospects of the Moscow empire, guidelines for Ukrainian politics and the definition of Ukrainian victory with People’s Deputy of Ukraine Oleh Dunda .
Not long ago, the question of the possible collapse of the so-called Russian Federation was on the sidelines. A full-scale invasion changed the situation dramatically. The possible division of Russia is being talked about everywhere: in Ukraine, Japan, the USA and EU countries. Is it just the war that has affected the situation so much, or are there other deeper reasons?
The issue of the collapse of the Russian Empire was not given much attention for several reasons. First: it is the so-called conformism of Western politicians and their reactionary way of thinking. If there is a choice between investing in active actions and calmly obtaining a deadline, then the second option will always be chosen. Secondly: for the last 20 years, the Russian Empire has been heavily investing in various types of expert clubs that have shaped the “fashion” of opinions for the political elite. Thirdly: the Western world lived with the understanding that “Russia has always existed, albeit under different names”
It was precisely the war of the Russian Empire against Ukraine that began to change this imagination little by little. Because the threat from Moscow turned out not to be imaginary, but quite real. Prigozhin made the greatest impact with his march. He showed that this imaginary monolithic empire turned out to be very fragile from the inside. That is, the scenarios of its collapse are very real.
If you model the situation of the division of Russia, which scenario seems the most realistic to you? Which enslaved nations, first of all, are ready to rise to the struggle for freedom?
For me, the main scenario is not the uprising of enslaved nations. Even at the end of 2022, for me, Prigozhin’s conditional march and his encroachment on power were the main scenario for the beginning of the collapse of the empire. Presently nothing has changed.
The only real and inevitable development of events in the empire is the further criminalization of power within, the separation of power between local powerful criminal groups. Also, accordingly, a complete break in management ties between Moscow and the regions. This process will be strengthened by the influx of those returning home, a large number of disgruntled lumpen who have tasted blood and the power of weapons. In whose head there will be no restrictions as to the means of obtaining money. Such a mix between 1917 and 1991. For conditional Buryatia, independence will fall from the sky, as it once did for Tajikistan.
What support can and does Ukraine provide to the enslaved nations? Do representatives of powerful state structures have an understanding of the strategic nature of this issue? What does the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine propose in this context?
Ukraine’s main task should be to support and train those groups that are ready to act from within the empire. The participation of representatives of enslaved nations on the front near Zaporizhzhia brings little benefit to Ukraine. This is all a waste of resources. Our goal is that the Russian border should stretch from Vladivostok to Murmansk. The more raids on the Kursk, Bryansk regions, etc. – the better. We must help the current and former Zasulich Faiths.
At one time, the leaders of the ABN convinced the civilized world that the collapse of the USSR would not lead to a global catastrophe. Perhaps today it is worth using the “ABN case” in order to convince our Western partners of the realism of the division of Russia and encourage them to actively work out various scenarios of this process? Who are our allies in the West in this matter?
We should say only one thing: the collapse of the Russian empire is already inevitable and the task of our Western partners is only to prepare for it. In order not to repeat the mistakes of 1991 again. They have already begun to hear it. There are already fruitful discussions on this topic in Warsaw, London, Tokyo, and, of course, Washington.
Considering the incredible success of the Armed Forces and the high price we pay for liberating every metre of our territories, it is very important to make correct forecasts and statements regarding the development of events. Nevertheless, how do you see a real and full-scale Ukrainian Victory?
Victory without the existence of the Russian Empire on our borders. Everything else is just a disguised defeat.
Thanks for the conversation!
Oleh Vitvitskyi, UIS, in conversation
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