The threat of a new conflict in the North Caucasus is taking on real shape: the political alliance between the Kremlin and the Kadyrov clan could escalate into a full-scale war within Russia itself, Dialogue writes.
The political conflict between the Kremlin and Chechnya’s leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, is rapidly escalating. Analysts say that if the agreements with the Chechen clan are broken, Russia could face a Third Chechen War, which could escalate into a civil war with elements of anti-colonial resistance.
Suppressed conflict comes out.
The confrontation between the federal authorities and Chechnya has long ceased to be just a backstage topic. Each month, signs of a political crisis in relations between Moscow and Grozny are growing. As analysts warn, this is no longer just an internal Russian conflict, but a system ready to explode. Russian analyst Anatoly Nesmiyan, in his commentary on the publication of “Important Stories,” emphasized that the probability of a new Chechen war has never been zero.
Peace in the region, according to him, was initially built on an agreement with one side of the internal Chechen conflict. If this agreement – in the person of Ramzan Kadyrov and his clan – is destroyed, then a new escalation in Chechnya is inevitable. Nesmiyan believes that this conflict will very quickly go beyond the local framework, turning into a full-fledged anti-colonial war. Relations between Chechnya and Russia, according to him, are a colonial model with dependence on a local loyal administration. If it disappears or loses support from Moscow, a power vacuum will arise, which will inevitably lead to legitimization through the struggle with the federal centre.
Kadyrov’s position is weakening.
According to the publication “Important Stories”, Ramzan Kadyrov has been in secret talks with Middle Eastern leaders in recent months to secure security guarantees for his family and assets after he leaves office. The FSB uncovered these contacts, which sharply irritated the Kremlin. Putin was promptly informed, and this, according to sources, became a point of tension in their relationship.
In addition, the deterioration of Kadyrov’s health, which was previously reported by Novaya Gazeta Europa, has increased instability: the head of Chechnya appears in public less and less often, and his speech has noticeably changed. Against the background of weak federal control and a possible change of leader, the guarantees of the continuation of the former “vertical” are rapidly disappearing.
Civil war in the shadow of geopolitics.
If the current deal between the Kremlin and Grozny collapses, the new phase of the conflict will not simply repeat the two previous Chechen wars. It will be civil and will affect not only Chechnya but also other republics of the North Caucasus, where similar sentiments have long been brewing. Russia risks entering a new, large-scale, internal war at a time when the state’s resources are exhausted and trust in the center is declining.
