I came across a conversation of “analysts” online. Among other things, there was a question about the possible consequences for Ukraine and the world if the Russian Federation “collapses”.
Again, complete nonsense in the answer – another meaningless apocalyptic delusion. The expert is literally frightened by his own assumptions. In addition to plotless scares, there is no real analysis of the possible development of the situation and possible consequences. It is not clear what is the basis of the belief that the collapse of the Moscow empire and the liberation of the nations enslaved by Moscow will have some negative consequences for Europe, the USA, other nations and countries of the world. It seems that the conviction of such “analysts” is solely the result of a subconscious perception of the very words “disintegration”, “collapse”, “chaos”, etc., as something negative.
In fact, if a bunch of small independent states are formed in the place of the Russian Federation, there will probably be EXCLUSIVELY positive consequences for Ukraine and for Europe, the USA, and for the entire civilized world. Only in the minds of bastards like Putin, will it become another “geopolitical catastrophe”. It is difficult to challenge irrational psychological phobias. This is rather a task of psychiatry and psychotherapy than of political science. Nevertheless, let’s try to contrast assumptions with non-specific horrors and plotless nightmares using examples, albeit conditional, but based on real situations and analogies.
1. Imagine that in 1944 the USSR would not have “captured” Tuva and the Tuva Emirate would have remained an independent state. – Would we see Tuvans among the Muscovite invaders today? It is clear that there would be no military units from the citizens of free Tuva in today’s war, and the Tuvans would not kill Ukrainians and would not die themselves.
2. Imagine that in 1991, together with others, Tatarstan, Buryatia, Yakutia, and Ichkeria would have gained independence (if the Russian Federation had not succeeded in enslaving Chechnya again)… Would we see Yakuts, Buryats, Tatars and Chechens among the invaders today?? It is clear that there would be no military units from the citizens of free Tatarstan, Buryatia, Yakutia, and Ichkeria in today’s war and they would not kill Ukrainians and would not die themselves. Would a conditional Putin dare to attack Ukraine without fighting Buryats and Kadyrivets “at hand”? If his mobilization capabilities were limited only to the regions of central Moscow?
3. Imagine that in the 1990s, in addition to the formation of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation would have broken up into 20 small states. Which of them would have the opportunity to attack Ukraine? Blackmail Europe? Threaten the USA? Confront and intimidate NATO? It is clear that it is unlikely that even one of the fragments of the empire could seriously threaten Ukraine and NATO. Most of them would not have a common border with either Ukraine or NATO. Would the small fragments of today’s Moscow have the opportunity to destabilize the situation in countries around the world? But most of these fragments would not even be able to have embassies and representative offices in most countries of the world!
4. And what would be the danger for Ukraine, Europe and the USA if some of these small “own principalities” were to fight among themselves? For example, Tatarstan borders Kirov, Ulyanovsk, Samara, Orenburg regions, the republics of Mari El, Chuvashia, Bashkortostan, and Udmurtia. Would the world, Ukraine, the USA and Europe suffer greatly from a war between Tatarstan and Udmurtia or Bashkortostan? And from fights between some other couple, or even between all of them at once? There would be absolutely no danger from such clashes for Ukraine, Europe and the USA.
Just as nobody in the world was concerned about the recent border conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. It exists! Have you even heard of it?
5. For some reason, all “analysts” are worried about the chaos they have imagined, which will supposedly begin as a result of the disintegration of the Moscow empire into states, some of which will inherit nuclear weapons. It seems that it is not so much the analysis of the possible situation that scares, but the very word “chaos” together with “nuclear weapons”.
Do “analysts” know that South Africa is a country that also at one time, despite external pressure, created its own nuclear weapons, but later renounced its nuclear status. For those who are interested, read about South Africa’s nuclear program. Very instructive, especially for Ukraine.
Europe and the USA are indeed “disturbed” to some extent by the “chaos” that is taking place in relations between themselves and within African countries. But it is dangerous for the USA and Europe, almost exclusively due to the intervention in the politics of African countries in the past by the USSR, and now by the Russian Federation.
The other day, there was a mutiny in Niger… Excited demonstrators are burning the flags of the former metropolis – France, waving the flags of the Russian Federation and shouting something like: “Putin come”! And would this rebellion have happened at all without the intervention of Moscow? Would it have happened if, in the place of today’s Russian Federation, there were two dozen national countries formed by peoples freed from the dictates of the Moscow empire? Would these freed people send Wagner gangs to African countries? Would they really have such an opportunity?
At one time, the territory of the British-controlled Indian colony split into two states. There were two states – India and Pakistan, which fought each other in the 1970s. Later, the eastern part of Pakistan also gained independence – Bangladesh was formed. Today, both Pakistan and India have nuclear weapons…so what? Did the USA, Europe and the world suffer from the war among themselves even such powerful “remnants” of the former colonies as India and Pakistan? And if not 2 but 20 states were formed on the site of England’s Indian colony… – Would any of them have sufficient potential to obtain and maintain nuclear weapons? Would their non-nuclear neighbours help these applicants join the nuclear club?
6. The Muscovite Empire in its current state is capable of maintaining a fairly powerful military-industrial complex. Perhaps “analysts of the apocalypse” are afraid of the social consequences of the probable economic collapse from the decline of the enterprises of this complex. Who in the world will be harmed by this? To importers of weapons of former Soviet production? Yes, it seems that today’s war has already demonstrated the “analogue” of Muscovites’ weapons, and it is unlikely that the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation is waiting for prosperity and popularity in the world.
In addition, a similar situation already existed during the crisis and the collapse of the USSR… The world-famous “Bush legs” are the biggest “sacrifice” the world made in order to reduce the social consequences of this “greatest geopolitical catastrophe”, which the collapse of the USSR represented in Putin’s sick mind. Imagine somewhere in Severomorsk an enterprise armed with some “cool” modern technology – for example, a cyclopean-sized camera for welding titanium hulls of nuclear submarines in an atmosphere of inert gases using electron beam welding… Even if this camera is cut into scrap metal… Is this a big deal for the world? A threat? What is the danger that another titanium submarine with nuclear ammunition will not appear in the hands of Kremlin miscreants, or another “horse” for sabotage on international communication cables? If that camera is not cut into scrap metal, deep-sea bathyscaphes will be created in it by order of ocean researchers…
Another illusion troubles the soothsayers of the apocalypse during the collapse of the Moscow Empire. They are afraid of the excessive strengthening of China, because it seems that in the event of the disintegration of the Moscow empire, Siberia with its enormous resources will be seized by China. In fact, everything is exactly the opposite. China is already carrying out a real “capture” of territories and resources precisely thanks to the imperial centre of the Russian Federation. If not for the will and dictates of Moscow, would the local population have leased millions of hectares of forest to China for nothing and for half a century? Even despite the Kremlin’s dictates established in the Russian Federation, local authorities risk opposing the transfer of their territories to China. After gaining independence, would the newly created states themselves and without coercion from Moscow give their territories to China?
History, which not only teaches fools, clearly and convincingly shows all who are willing to see that the collapse of empires, even those that brought culture and civilization to the aborigine colonies, is mainly to the benefit of the nations who gain independence and to the benefit of the world as a whole.
The slogan that the collapse of the Moscow empire will become something dangerous and undesirable is immoral and wrong. This evil and immoral narrative is imposed on us by the Kremlin imperial elite.
This narrative is flawed from the point of view of predicting the real consequences that will come.
Immoral – in relation to the nations enslaved by Moscow. Because in the captivity of the Moscow imperial centre, these peoples also suffer from genocide and destruction. Only thanks to Moscow, these nations participate in today’s genocide of Ukrainians. Mainly, Moscow creates divisions between these nations among themselves. Did the east and west of Ukraine fight each other without Moscow’s intervention? Would 60,000 forcibly mobilized residents of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions have fought against Ukraine if not for the occupation and aggression of Moscow? Rhetorical questions…
We must overcome the myth about the catastrophic and negative consequences for the world of the collapse of the Moscow empire and the creation of national states of nations freed from Moscow’s colonial rule on these territories.
We must destroy the Mоscovite empire.
We must help the people enslaved by Moscow to gain Freedom!
Amen.
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