After the conclusion of the Global Peace Summit on 16 June the final Joint Communique, signed by more than 80 states, Russia also decided to demonstrate its “geopolitical muscles”.
So, on 17 June Putin hastily issued an order “to sign an agreement about a comprehensive strategic partnership between the Russian Federation and the DPRK” and the very next day he went to Pyongyang to sign it.
He wanted to do something similar in Vietnam, but there they made it clear that their strategic partner currently is not the Russian Federation. However, now it is not about Vietnam.
After the Peace Summit and 17 security agreements signed by Ukraine with the world’s leading states, including the “big seven”, the “comprehensive partnership” of Putin and Kim, it is difficult to call it even the beginning of a formation of the newest “axis of evil”… This is a continuation of the theatre of the absurd which the Russian Federation lives in and no more. But this new act of the play testifies first of all to the weakness of the Russian dictator.
The expert of the non-governmental analytical centre “Ukrainian Studies of Strategic Studies”, candidate of political sciences, Yury Oliynyk, explains:
— The agreement between the DPRK and the Russian Federation is actually a success for the Korean side. Russia needs additional shells, in addition to the ones sent by Kim last fall. The Military Industry of the Russian Federation could not fully meet the army’s needs, despite the increase in capacity. In addition, China, despite the magnificent meeting in May, currently does not directly want to participate in the conflict.
On the other hand, the Russian Federation takes responsibility for helping the DPRK in the event of aggression against it. It seems that the agreement is mutual, but the Russian Federation is already at war, although it calls it a “svo” (a special military operation). Obviously, retroactive obligations will not apply. It is unlikely that Korean forces will appear on the Ukrainian front (except for a narrow group of specialists, aiming to master the conditions of a new war style). Instead, from Kim’s position, the agreement will reduce the possibility of strikes and is an adequate response to the provocations of the DPRK’s neighbours, the expert believes.
A similar promise that Moscow will intervene if the DPRK is attacked repeats what was promised back in the 1961 treaty between North Korea and the Soviet Union. That agreement was cancelled after the collapse of the USSR, and in 2000 was replaced by another one that offered fewer security guarantees. So now the DPRK and Russia have fully restored their Cold War military alliance.
Due to the urgent need for at least some kind of military assistance, Putin sat next to Kim in the position of a supplicant and said everything the North Korean dictator wanted to hear about “American imperialism”, repeating the rhetoric of Khrushchev, Brezhnev and Chernenko…
Now Putin needs to get more North Korean 122 mm and 152 mm artillery shells and other Soviet-compatible ammunition, which, despite their poor quality, significantly strengthens the capabilities of the occupying army. Nor will he refuse several tens of thousands of “bayonets” from “Comrade Juche”.
This includes, in particular, Article 4 of the Russian-North Korean treaty, according to which, if one of the countries is invaded and is in a state of war, the other must “immediately use all means” to provide “military and other assistance.”
Such a prospect for Ukraine, which broke off diplomatic relations with the DPRK on 13 July 2022, due to its recognition of the independence of the terrorist quasi-state DPR and LPR, is bad. Our army is already barely holding back the endless “meat assaults” of the Russians, and when Korean “meat” is added to the Russian “meat”, it will be even more difficult to hold positions…
It is also alarming that Putin decided to sell the Tumangan River to China, along which the Russian-North Korean border now runs.
— The announced settlement of border relations in the area of the Tumangan River is obviously in China’s interests. The latter’s vessels will be able to transit to the Sea of Japan. Accordingly, the “Friendship Bridge” between the DPRK and the Russian Federation across this river should be demolished, because large Chinese ships cannot pass under it. This will reduce the opportunities for transit directly from the DPRK to the Russian Federation and vice versa, but will increase the Chinese potential, – says Yurii Oliynyk.
Therefore, the Russian Federation is ready even for territorial concessions to receive at least some military aid and political support. This also seeks to create more “points of tension” in the world to divert attention from Ukraine. The Kremlin plans to sign a comprehensive cooperation agreement with Iran similar to the one in North Korea “in the near future.”
