The controlled division of Russia into national entities with central Muscovy in the next 50 years is an inevitable scenario if Putin’s regime remains in place and the aggressive policy of the Russian Federation does not change, believes Andrey Kovalenko, head of the Centre for Countering Disinformation of the National Security and Defence Council. But we can hardly talk about the inevitability of the collapse of the Russian Federation now, since it can exist for quite a long time with the assistance of its neighbours and due to the non-interference of the democratic West.
However, the scenario of reformatting Russia into national democratic states is very desirable for Ukraine and the entire democratic world. But for this scenario to become real, efforts must be made. Of course, it is good that such statements are now being made, including by representatives of the National Security and Defence Council, but it is time to move from expressing wishes to implementing these ideas in state policy.
The Verkhovna Rada has adopted several statements in support of certain enslaved people of the Russian Federation, the last of which concerned the genocide of the Circassian people. But this is not enough. A bill on the principles of state policy on working with the enslaved nations of the Russian Federation has been registered in parliament. It provides for the implementation of a targeted state policy, the purpose of which is to support the enslaved nations of Russia, including the opportunity for them to gain national state independence.
This scenario is very desirable – it is no less an important guarantee of security for Ukraine than integration into NATO and the EU. In this matter, Ukraine may even have to take the lead and convince Western allies that such a scenario is not a threat, but an opportunity to build peace on normal democratic principles and eliminate the threat of Russian imperialism. This is the best option that guarantees the security of the democratic world.
Unfortunately, we are now seeing a different position: in the West, especially in the US, the majority sees the collapse of the Russian Federation as an almost apocalyptic scenario due to the threat of nuclear proliferation. In this, the West is repeating the mistake of 1991, when it believed that it was the support of the imperial centre in Moscow and Gorbachev that guaranteed stability in the region, advocated for the democratization of the Soviet Union and was categorically against its collapse, because it feared the future fate of nuclear weapons. The next 30 years have shown the world the fallacy of this approach.
The West’s bet that Russia’s possession of nuclear weapons would eliminate the threat of nuclear weapons did not work at all. Moreover, it was Russia that became the first state to openly threaten the world with the use of nuclear weapons.
Therefore, an extremely important prerequisite for the transformation of the Russian Empire and its transformation into a group of national democratic states is the approval of this by Western political elites and their involvement, together with Ukraine, in supporting the enslaved nations of the Russian Federation, so that national democratic states will emerge on the ruins of the current Russian Empire.
The probability of the collapse of the Russian Empire is very high. But if this is a spontaneous and uncontrolled process, without attempts to direct it into a democratic channel, then, unfortunately, the fragments of the Russian Empire that will appear on its ruins may have a very dangerous format of some extreme Islamist forms and become a source of terrorism, including nuclear terrorism. Therefore, the best that Western states can do is to try to control and direct these processes, and not restrain them, as they are doing now.
Another significant reason for supporting even such a vile Russia as it is now is the love affair of Western societies with Russian culture. This Russophilia permeates Western political elites and is not easy to get rid of. It is also the reason that many Western decision-makers, even understanding the threats that modern Russia poses, still cannot imagine that it will suddenly disappear and be replaced by nation-states unknown to them.
To a large extent, the prospect of Russia’s collapse depends on Putin’s stay in power. The Russian Empire, like any empire, is very authoritarian and tailored to a specific leader. Its existence is highly dependent on specific political decisions at the highest level.
It should be noted that the lack of mechanisms for changing power in Russia in the event of Putin’s disappearance, death, flight, etc. could lead to chaos, which would give a chance to the enslaved nations. Putin now personifies the imperial sentiments of Russian society and at the same time strengthens them. That is, Putin is the embodiment of the fact that Russia is an imperial and currently successful force, which is returning to world politics precisely due to Putin’s behaviour.
I am far from expecting that Putin’s death will automatically lead to the emergence of another Russia, but without him such chances will definitely arise. But it is important to explain to our Western allies that simply removing Putin from power in Russia in one way or another does not mean eliminating Russian aggression. In addition, Putin’s successor may be no less a bearer of Russian imperial sentiments than Putin. Therefore, he may become the successor of the policy that is now a source of danger. That is, the problem is not Putin, but Russian imperialism.
In addition, any time frame for the possible collapse of Russia that we would name would be irrelevant. Events are developing so unevenly that it is impossible to say that Russia will collapse in 50 years or 2-3 years. After all, even in the summer of 1991, very few people could have predicted the collapse of the USSR.
Volodymyr Viatrovych, National Deputy of Ukraine, historian, and former director of the Ukrainian Institute of National Memory.
