The measure to help Ukraine is guided by a strategy based on two fears: the fear of Russia’s possible use of nuclear weapons and the fear of Russia’s disintegration.
The fear of disintegration is also caused by fears: anxiety about the fate of the nuclear potential of the Russian Federation, fears about the possible rise to power in newly formed states of Islamist and other radical forces and leaders, and clashes between newly formed states abroad.
These fears are constantly, actively and successfully fuelled both by the Kremlin and by “Moscow-Petersburg” opposition associations: – “Russia of the Future” (A. Navalny, L. Volkov)), “Forum Svobodnoi Rossii” (G. Kasparov, I. Tyutrin), “Open Russia” (M. Khodorkovsky, A. Pivovarov), “Free Russia” (D. Kramer, S. Aleksashenko).
Accordingly, such a strategy is reactive, that is, dependent on the actions of Moscow and consists of preventing the West itself from taking steps that could be interpreted by the Kremlin as an escalation of the war or as an existential threat to the existence of current Russia and become a reason for its use of nuclear weapons.
The current strategy is aimed at keeping Russia within its internationally recognized borders.
Such a policy provides a permanent strategic initiative in the hands of Putin – including in the form of nuclear blackmail – and can have only 2 final results: either the use of nuclear weapons by Russia, or the self-humiliation of the West with further concessions and its loss of world leadership in favour of authoritarian regimes, and therefore is known to be unproductive and unprofitable.
However, this strategy does not take into account the new domestic political realities that have arisen in Russia and its emigrant communities after 24 February 2022. In addition to the above-mentioned opposition formations, the goal of which is to “replace Putin with a democratic leader”, new subjects of the opposition process are being created – ethnic-regional platforms with a clear anti-imperial dominance, the goal of which is the decolonization of the Russian Federation and the creation of newly independent states in its place.
These platforms, for the same reason – the fear of “provoking Putin” – do not yet enjoy even the moral support of the West.
At the same time, an objective analysis of current realities and the long-term interest of the Euro-Atlantic community show that it is the policy aimed not only at maximum assistance to Ukraine with weapons and equipment but also at the promotion of ethnic-regional centrifugal movements and initiatives that can and should become the cornerstone of the new strategy of the “Ramstein Coalition” concerning Russia.
Therefore, the goal and result of such a new strategy should be the controlled decolonization of the Russian Federation.
The international legal grounds for starting and supporting the process of decolonization of Russia should be both the principle of self-determination of nations enshrined in the UN Charter and the “Declaration on Granting Independence to Colonial Countries and Nations”, which was adopted by the 25th session of the UN General Assembly on 14 December 1960 and proclaimed the need to put an end to colonialism and confirmed the inalienable right to full independence and freedom of the people of all colonial countries and other non-self-governing territories. This document and extensive explanatory diplomatic and informational work in the countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America regarding its full compliance with the conditions in which the nations of Russia currently find themselves, can and should become the foundation for the ideological justification of the need to realize the right to self-determination of the nations colonized by Russia. The very declaration of such a goal in the conditions of the Russian-Ukrainian war will be a powerful stimulus for the reorientation of the Global South from the current policy of supporting Russia, “which opposes the USA and the entire West” to a policy of solidarity with the nations colonized by it, who are fighting for their liberation, and therefore solidarity with Ukraine and the West, which help these nations to liberate themselves.
Such a policy will provide the following positives for the democratic world:
- A radical change in the world balance in favour of democracy;
- The disappearance of the military threat to neighbouring and other states from the Russian Federation simply as a result of its annihilation;
- A radical increase in the opportunities to reduce China’s capabilities in its increasingly obvious confrontation with the democratic world because
a) an end will be put to the current inevitable trend of the final transformation of totalitarian and economically weak Russia into a vassal of China, its resource base and additional nuclear and military arsenal,
b) a potential perspective will open for the transpolation of the “Russian model” of decolonization to the Uyghurs, Tibetans and other enslaved peoples of China.
4. Getting rid of constant nuclear blackmail from Moscow following the decisions already taken by the anti-imperialist opposition platforms: from the “system of two keys: one in Moscow, the other in NATO” (“Congress of National Deputies”) to the nuclear-free status of newborn states (“Forum of the Free Peoples of Postrussia”);
5. A radical reduction in the probability of armed conflicts over possible disputed territories between the newly independent states, since their representatives in the “Forum of the Free Peoples of Postrussia” have already made a conceptual decision that the borders between them will remain within the current administrative boundaries until the establishment of democratically elected parliaments demarcations and their change will be possible only through negotiations between the legitimate authorities of the new, already independent states.
Therefore, Europe, North America, Japan, and other democracies should not neglect this unique chance to initiate and lead the movement for the final decolonization of the nations of the Earth – precisely as the final stage of the process that began immediately after World War II.
To solve once and for all the problem of Russia’s permanent aggressiveness, and to put an end to its attempts to destroy international law and the world order, it is necessary to ensure a controlled and full-scale reconstruction of Russia, which includes assistance in the transformation of the current Russian regions into independent democratic states. Another replacement of the country’s leader – “prisons of nations and regions” – without a structural restructuring of the state and society, without elimination of the “nomadic matrix”, without de-ordization following the example of the denazification of post-war Germany will very soon revive the spirit of revanchism in Russia and a new threat to the civilized world.
Therefore, the mission of the Euro-Atlantic community should be to replace the passive doctrine of deterring aggressive Russia with an active strategy consisting of three main elements.
The first is maximum assistance to Ukraine in providing weapons, organizing its own production of weapons, and carrying out actions and reforms necessary for the fastest possible entry into NATO. Changing the philosophy of aid to Ukraine from the vague thesis “We will help Ukraine as much as necessary” to the clear principle “We will help Ukraine as much as necessary for its victory.”
The second is the neutralization of the Kremlin’s nuclear threats. They cannot be treated lightly, because the nuclear gun has already been brought to the global political stage by Putin. Both he and his “sixes” like Dmitry Medvedev are constantly pointing at her, and according to the laws of the genre, she cannot but shoot. Therefore, the West must urgently ensure its readiness for instant mirror use in the event of the need for any force, including nuclear. For this, it is necessary to carry out without delay the resuscitation of the entire nuclear security complex of North America and Europe of the 50s and 60s of the last century, the Reagan programme “Star Wars”, the development and implementation of a set of new programmes that are guaranteed to make it impossible to launch, depart from the territory of the Russian Federation, or arrive to the territory of responsibility of NATO of Russian nuclear missiles.
The third is maximum assistance to national and regional movements in the territory of present-day Russia. Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania should become hubs for such movements, and the members of the “Ramstein coalition” should become “personal partners and mentors” of individual regions of the Russian Federation in their decolonization and democratization. This, in addition to optimizing the process, will also ensure a logical, “soft” infusion of new states into the democratic world, and will not replenish the ranks of totalitarian and extremist regimes, since if not all, then definitely most of the new independent states will be chosen as key strategic partners, and states, who will contribute to decolonization as “personal mentors”.
Therefore, the basis of a new, active and guaranteed winning strategy in relation to Russia should not be the fear of disintegration of the Russian Federation, but its approach.
Instead of the current constant self-intimidation by the possibility of Putin unleashing a nuclear war – that is, a hopeless and passive expectation of the worst – Ukraine and the West are offered the active creation of a better one: a new reality in which the fate of both nuclear weapons in Russia and Russia itself will a priori be in the hands of the designers of this reality
And finally, as a remark, I will give two logical questions that readers of this article may have, and the answers to them:
- Who exactly will decolonize the empire and free Russia from Putin and his system? After all, NATO will not introduce its troops into the territory of the Russian Federation, and it will not allow Ukraine to introduce its troops.
Respond. No one forbids and cannot forbid the Russians themselves to liberate their homeland, for which they can create a “People’s Militia” in a form developed and tested by the Kremlin itself: private military campaigns. They will not be part of the Armed Forces, they will be created from volunteers – citizens of the Russian Federation outside its borders, and they will be financed not by the West or Ukraine, but by foreign Russian anti-Putin business structures.
- Will the new strategy not be an interference in the internal affairs of the Russian Federation?
Response. With its attack on Ukraine, and frank and systematic rejection of universally recognized, including Russia itself, norms of international law, the Russian Federation itself has already internationalized the problem of both current Russia and its future in the most obvious way.
For illustration and as a possible example of how to talk with the current “bullying” Kremlin, I will give a quote.
“We must not stop until the current, inherently terrorist Russian state is completely dismantled. It must be completely destroyed. More precisely, so that no ashes from it are left. So that this abomination could never, under any circumstances, be reborn. We do not have a choice… That’s why it’s the only way – complete disposal of the state machine and absolute guarantees of loyalty for the future. They can only be given under Ukraine’s control over everything that is happening and will happen on the territory of the former Horde state. And we will achieve it.”
This is a literal translation of one of the last tweets of the same Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, I only changed the words “Ukraine” and “Russia”. Therefore, as a summary: we do not offer anything new, we only traditionally urge to use one of the fundamental rules of psychotherapy: “You must speak with the client in the language of the client.”
Pavlo Zhovnirenko,
Chairman of the Board of the NGO “Centre for Strategic Studies”
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