The third stage of the collapse of the Russian Empire

These days, 32 years ago, the Soviet Union ceased to exist.

This was the second stage of the collapse of the empire. The first stage occurred in 1917, when Poland, Finland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia broke away from the empire (the last three briefly).

The second stage of disintegration brought independence to 14 republics, including Ukraine.

I do not know when and how the war will end, but in the event of a Russian defeat, its consequence will very likely be the third stage of disintegration. Most likely, the final one, although perhaps the penultimate one.

Currently, we have a situation that resembles 1991 in almost everything:

1. An unsuccessful imperial war – its goals were not achieved.
2. An economic crisis – there is not enough money for redistribution, and this is the main “scrape”.
3. The collapse of ideology and attempts to create a common identity.
4. A lack of basic security for the masses and elites.
5. Demonstration of insufficient capacity of security forces – reduction of fear.

In addition, several factors did not exist in 1991:

1. Sanctions: then the West helped and now it is the opposite.
2. The Internet: a means of communication and self-organization, even under control.
3. The presence of big players with their own interests: China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, etc.
4. Estonia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, etc. as success stories and role models.
5. Lack of career prospects for local elites, who were given great importance in Soviet times (career journey is often forgotten to be included in the list of imperial “scrap”, but this is what buried more than one empire).

All these factors work for collapse, instead there are no new conservation factors.

What lessons can we learn from 1991 for our time?

1. No empire is eternal. The USSR was immeasurably more powerful than the current Russian Federation, but it collapsed.
2. Unity and legitimacy fall very gradually, and then suddenly to zero.
3. The empire cannot offer any vision of the future, only the new leaders can.
4. The empire is being dismantled by the old elites, but the liberation movements have an important role to play. The old parliaments are a key point, despite their limited legitimacy.
5. The road from the Declaration of Independence to the creation of a capable state is long and difficult, but it is important to start.
6. The passive majority does not play any role. The main role belongs to the old elites and an active minority, which may be very small. The passive majority longs for stability and security, it accepts the agenda and vision of the future developed by the microscopic active minority and broadcast by the old elites to the general public.
7. The West does not understand anything, is in the grip of Moscow-centrism and “big culture”, is afraid of the consequences, tries to preserve the empire until the last day of its existence, and then accepts reality.
8. The empire must be finished off, otherwise it seeks to recover.