Putin and the Russian authorities’ fear of Dagestan is rapidly gaining momentum due to the grave situation in the region.
The situation in the North Caucasus is becoming increasingly explosive. Dagestan, which was already one of the most unstable regions of Russia, is now on the brink of a social explosion and large-scale Islamization. This is stated in the Federal Agency for Nationalities of the Russian Federation report, which Der Spiegel obtained in the article “Putin’s Fear of Dagestan”. The Russian authorities have effectively lost control over the region. Dagestan is Islamized, there are plenty of weapons there, and the attitude towards Moscow is hostile. At the same time, the majority of Russians have a negative attitude towards Islam, which only exacerbates the tension. Russians remember how the Second Chechen War began: the fighting broke out in the mountainous regions of Dagestan, where discontent and tension are brewing today.
While Putin is obsessed with the war with Ukraine, a crisis is brewing in Russia itself, which could explode at any moment. Corruption, Islamization, and weakness of the state. The report directly states that Dagestan is on the verge of social upheaval. The region’s infrastructure has been destroyed, there are power, gas, and water outages, and people are suffering en masse from poisoning by contaminated water. The reason is the complete corruption of local authorities, which is decomposing the republic from within. But the main threat is large-scale Islamization, led by Mufti Akhmed Abdullaev. Previously, the Kremlin considered him a “moderate” alternative to the radicals, but now Abdullaev himself has become a conductor of a tough Islamic course. According to experts, the mufti is laying claim to political leadership, wants to introduce Sharia in the republic and essentially create an Islamic state. His supporters already occupy key positions in the regional leadership, and he does not hide his desire to take Dagestan under complete control. The report also says that the niqab is becoming widespread in the republic and that an emerging Islamic identity is based on Arab traditions, which is widening the gap with the rest of Russia. What awaits Russia?
Putin’s officials are trying to hush up the problem. The authorities are proposing “harsh personnel purges,” a ban on wearing religious clothing and appointing “veterans” of the war with Ukraine to leadership positions. However, these measures are unlikely to change the situation – the influence of Islam in the region is growing, and the central government is losing control. Against this background, interfaith contradictions are intensifying. In Dagestan, the Shiite movement is already gaining influence, with its membership reaching 25,000 people, which could lead to an even more serious internal conflict. Russia is repeating the mistakes of 1999. On 23 June last year, a double terrorist attack occurred in Dagestan. Terrorists attacked synagogues and Orthodox churches, killing 27 people, including 17 police officers. This was the first major signal that the situation was getting out of control. However, instead of solving the problem, the Russian authorities have taken up political games. The head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, publicly entered into a conflict with the leadership of the Investigative Committee, stating that “Muslims do not commit terrorist attacks.” He was supported by the head of Dagestan, Sergei Melikov, who tried to link the terrorist attack with the war in Ukraine, despite the obvious local context.
How will this end? The North Caucasus has long been a threat to Russia, but now the situation is becoming critical. While Putin wages war on Ukraine and weakens state resources, a new conflict is brewing on Russian territory. If Islamization and the social crisis in Dagestan continue, the Kremlin may face an internal uprising that will resemble the Chechen wars. Then the Russian army will have to choose where to fight: on the Ukrainian front or inside its own country.
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