More than 2,100 people from Tuva have been killed in Russia’s war against Ukraine, according to figures compiled by Tuvan activists. For a republic with fewer than 350,000 inhabitants, that represents a very high human cost. After Russia’s September 18–20 elections, activists again expressed fears of a new mobilization. (themoscowtimes.com)
Tuva is paying with lives for a war whose political decisions are made far from the republic.
But Tuva’s history shows that rule from Moscow is not the only form of its political existence.
In 1921, the Tuvan People’s Republic was established as a separate state. Its sovereignty was limited and Moscow’s influence became increasingly decisive, but Tuva maintained its own institutions, parliament, government and diplomatic relations until it was incorporated into the Soviet Union in 1944. (minorityrights.org)
That history did not disappear.
At the end of the 20th century, Tuvan political movements again raised the question of separation. Minority Rights Group notes that the Tuvan Popular Front, established in 1989, demanded secession from Russia, while the People’s Party of Sovereign Tuva emerged in the 1990s. (minorityrights.org)
Open separatist politics inside Tuva is now heavily restricted. New Tuva, an exiled Tuvan anti-war and Indigenous movement, has focused on protecting people from the war and pursuing longer-term political change. In 2026, Russian authorities designated New Tuva among organizations associated with “extremist” activity. (themoscowtimes.com)
Meanwhile, official election results in Tuva once again showed overwhelming support for the Moscow-backed political system: incumbent Vladislav Khovalyg received 90.95%, while United Russia received 88.26% of the party-list vote. These are official regional election figures; they do not by themselves establish the political preferences of all Tuvans. (tmgnews.ru)
And this is where the deeper question begins.
What happens to Tuva if the Moscow center one day loses the capacity to hold the current imperial structure together?
History gives Tuvans an experience of separate statehood. The current war adds thousands of graves. The existence of a Tuvan political movement in exile shows that questions of political identity and future status have not disappeared.
That does not mean independence is inevitable or that it represents a consensus among Tuvans. But a collapse or profound transformation of the Russian center would reopen the question of who determines Tuva’s political status and on what terms.
Then the 2,100 dead would be more than a statistic from someone else’s war.
They would become part of a question the empire has long tried to suppress: does Tuva have the right to decide for itself what it will become after Moscow?
