The liberation of nations enslaved by Russia is the key to Ukrainian victory

What is victory for Ukraine?

From the first day of the full-scale invasion of Russia in Ukraine, there were slogans about the inevitability of our victory . However, in the seventeenth month of the great war, we still do not have a clear answer to the question: what exactly is the Ukrainian victory? By going to the borders of 1991? Complete cleansing of the Ukrainian land from the invader? Can it be something else?

Considering the thousand-year history of wars between Ukraine and Russia, we can be sure that the preservation of the Moscow empire in its current form guarantees the return of armed confrontation to our territory after a certain number of years. The duration of the break between hostilities will depend only on how difficult the defeat of the aggressor will be and how long it will take to restore its military and economic power.

The so-called ” Prygozhin rebellion ” raised doubts about its effectiveness from the beginning, since it was not directed against Russia as a misanthropic empire. On the contrary, the leader of the “rebellion” emphasized his patriotism and desire to rid Muscovy of the inefficient top military leadership. The collapse of Russia could be a byproduct, but it was by no means the goal of the rebels’ actions. However, “Wagner’s march” still showed the most important thing: the vulnerability of the Moscow regime.

A long-term guarantee of Ukraine’s security and prosperity is possible only under one condition – the termination of Muscovy’s existence as an aggressive empire with its boundless natural resources and huge mobilization potential. The key to this is the presence on the territory of modern Russia of up to 40 different nationalities: from the Caucasian Chechens, Ingush, and Dagestani to the northeastern Yakuts and Buryats.

Despite the efforts of the tsarist regime, the Bolsheviks, and now the so-called “democratic” Russia, these peoples have not lost their identity, which allows them to retain a significant potential for political subjectivity. Many of them have a vivid history of liberation movements, among which the events of two recent Chechen wars in the 90s of the last century stand out.

Economic oppression of the enslaved peoples of Russia

In addition to the desire for national liberation, economic imbalances are an important factor in the future collapse of the Russian Federation. In 2020, 72% of federal subjects of Moscow were poorer than the average level of wealth in the country. According to a recent study , according to the level of economic development, the regions of Russia can be divided into 5 classes:

• The first is the city of Moscow .
• The second – Moscow, Tyumen regions, the city of St. Petersburg.
• The third – Krasnodar and Krasnoyarsk regions, Khanty-Mansiysk and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Districts, the republics of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan, Sverdlovsk and Rostov regions.
• The fourth – Samara, Chelyabinsk, Novosibirsk and more than 20 other regions.
• The fifth is other regions, in particular, the Far East.

The most interesting thing is the ratio of the number of federal subjects in these classes to their total amount: 1.2%, 3.6%, 9.6%, 25.3% and 60.3%, respectively. That is, the first three classes, where mostly racial Muscovites live, have a share of less than 15% of the total. More than 85% of the subjects of the Moscow Federation, inhabited mostly by oppressed nations, belong to two economically backward classes. An interesting fact: more than a third of Russian GDP and economic assets are concentrated in the territory of Moscow, St. Petersburg, Moscow and Tyumen regions.

Under the influence of sanctions in Russia, there was a need to direct huge budget funds to the needs of the army. Due to the frozen assets of the central bank, export and import restrictions, problems with logistics, the Moscow government lost a large share of previously available financial resources. In this case, the obvious solution is the reorientation of internal budget flows, in particular, the cancellation of subsidies for the development of backward regions – where enslaved peoples live.

In the long term, the Russian economy is doomed to a painful contraction. Perhaps those who lived badly before will not feel a significant difference. But now they have to realize that the war against Ukraine takes away any hope of improving the situation even for their children and grandchildren. And first of all, this concerns the enslaved peoples, among whom discontent is growing.

What should Ukraine do?

According to representatives of the peoples of Russia, war and mobilization cause them significant losses of human resources. Kalmyks, Ingush, Tatars and others do not understand why they are forced to send thousands of their sons to the front, where death awaits them. Accordingly, to the economic troubles is added tension, which creates the prerequisites for a social explosion. This is exactly what Ukraine should use to push the empire to collapse.

Currently, Kyiv should actively work in several directions:

1. Create national military formations within the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
2. At the level of the Verkhovna Rada, formally recognize the independence of the occupied countries, for example, as happened recently with the recognition of the independence of Chechnya.
3. To support the independent-minded political elite of the enslaved nations. Contribute to the formation of governments in exile.
4. Carry out active propaganda work, emphasizing the separation of enslaved peoples from the occupying state.

A significant problem today is the reluctance of Western countries to see Russia disintegrated. Just as in 1991, when President Bush from the podium of the Verkhovna Rada urged Ukrainians not to allow the collapse of the USSR, today our Western allies are just as afraid of instability in the Russian Federation. However, we must convey to them the fact that a unified Russia poses a long-term threat not only to Ukraine, but also to the entire Western world. Its collapse will not only relieve the world of military pressure, but will also be a guarantee of the normalization of economic relations, since the newly established states will not use oil, gas and other resources as a tool of blackmail and aggression.

Ukraine itself should be an example of enslaved peoples: at one time we won independence, against all odds built a wonderful country and are successfully defending ourselves against a deadly enemy. For them, this path is already quite real, and it will lead us to our common victory.

Oleksandr Chupak,