The gas station country with an atomic bomb, as EU chief diplomat Josep Borrel sarcastically called it, and “with eggs”, as it believed itself, first experienced a shortage of eggs, and soon the country, until recently one of the largest oil exporters, may experience a shortage of oil products.
Russian oil bases, even at a considerable distance from Ukraine, have become achievable legitimate targets of the Defence Forces of Ukraine.
Over two days, January 18 and 19, 2024, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine attacked two large oil storage facilities in Russia with the help of drones. On January 18, an oil terminal near St. Petersburg was hit. To reach it, the Ukrainian drone flew calmly and unnoticed for more than 1,250 kilometers through the territory controlled by Russia. Already on January 19, the same GUR demilitarized a large oil depot in Klinky near Bryansk.
As it turned out, the presence of gas stations without an air defense “roof” became an object of man-made danger and civil panic.
Russian citizens on social media sincerely do not understand why their country had the right to strike civilian oil refineries and bases in Ukraine during 2022-2023, and now they are receiving retaliatory strikes.
However, the Russian military leadership has even more worries. As it turned out, the vaunted Russian air defence system was leaky, and strategic objects were easily accessible.
On its way to St. Petersburg, the Ukrainian drone calmly flew over Putin’s dacha in Valdai. In the case of Klinky, the oil base connected to the strategic oil pipeline “Druzhba”, the only way to pump oil and oil products to the European Union, namely to Hungary and Slovakia, turned out to be completely unprotected, thus influencing the politics in these countries.
Last year, Russia struck the so-called Medvedchuk pipeline (a part of the Druzhba oil pipeline and an oil depot in the Rivne region), so it is useless to complain about a strike on an object that fulfills international contracts.
However, the biggest problems await Russia soon. Ukraine, having recovered from the terrorist attacks on the oil infrastructure, diversified the supply and placement of oil products. Russia, on the other hand, is critically dependent on reserves of petroleum products at large terminals. After all, in the event of accidents on them, the shortage of fuel increases instantly, especially for the civilian population. In August 2023, a shortage of gasoline and diesel fuel broke out in many regions of the country. The country even had to ban the export of petroleum products to equalize the situation on the market.
In the event of accidents, it is possible to cover the deficit in a certain region through additional supply, for example by rail, in about three months.
The war requires more and more resources, including fuel and lubricants, and the Russian railway can no longer cope with the existing overload. The reduction of oil exports leads to the degradation of production, and the lack of funds and access to technologies does not allow the existing oil refineries to meet needs on time. Where public requests are at the bottom of the list.
Therefore, Russia still remains a gas station country with nuclear weapons, but without “roof”, eggs and oil products. And so everything goes according to plan. The goals of the special operation will be achieved. GUR MO guarantees.
Yuriy Syrotyuk
