The Bill of 50 US Senators

The document talks about a “penal” 500% duty on all imports from countries whose residents continue to buy Russian oil, gas, uranium and other products. Its adoption will significantly change the game’s rules on the world market and in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. If earlier influence on Russia was exercised through sanctions, now it is about economic leverage for Russia’s partners — primarily China and India.

An important detail: such duties may be imposed if “Russia refuses to participate in good faith in peace negotiations regarding the war in Ukraine, or if, after their establishment, it again commits actions that undermine the sovereignty of Ukraine.”

Just a month ago, it was hard to imagine that the US would impose tariffs on products from 180 countries. Now, it is hard to believe in 500 percent tariffs. But the past few weeks should have taught us that Washington’s new economic initiatives should be taken seriously.

The Americans were usually cautious about sanctions against Russian energy carriers. Instead of a complete ban, they opted for a price ceiling of $60, and instead of sanctions against large Chinese or Indian companies, they opted for local restrictions on individual tankers and insurers. This was explained by the fact that without Russian oil, the world risks falling into a large-scale energy crisis.

But it seems that the experience of “punitive” tariffs (for example, against Venezuela) has allowed the new US administration to reconsider its cautious approach to Russian energy carriers. If earlier those who imposed them (i.e. the US Treasury Department) had to monitor compliance with sanctions, now the entire country that intends to avoid these punitive tariffs will monitor them.

Now, sanctions control does not require complex investigations, and searches for tankers and offshores. All it takes is one confirmed fact of the purchase of Russian oil, for example, by a Chinese or Indian company, and the entire country loses the opportunity to legally supply its products to the United States. For export-oriented economies, this is a critical risk. And this is exactly what the authors of the bill are counting on.

It is difficult to predict whether this will force Putin to sit down at the negotiating table. But the very fact of such an initiative is already of great importance for Ukraine.

First, it demonstrates bipartisan support for our country in the US Senate, where the initiative is supported by Republicans and Democrats in equal shares. Second, despite the change of administration, difficult signals from Washington, and generally cautious rhetoric, America does not stop looking for ways to put real pressure on Putin to end the war. This is a positive signal for Ukraine, especially at a time when other mechanisms of influence seem to be exhausting their potential.